Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

housing construction

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, October

  • In one line: Permits are the key number, and they are headed back up. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Nov 2021 Surging Retail Sales Signal a Solid Start to Fourth Quarter Spending

  • Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
  • ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
  • Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2021 Core Capex Orders Soar, but Look Out for a September Pause

  • Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
  • Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
  • New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Oct 2021 Cashflow--and Cash Stocks--are More Important than Confidence

  • The Delta Covid wave has depressed consumers' confidence, but not for much longer.
  • In any event, the key driver of spending next year will be cashflow and the rundown of accumulated savings
  • New home sales likely rose again in September, as the re-rebound continues, but the Ida hit is uncertain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Oct 2021 Layoffs are Set to Hit New Lows as the Economy Rebounds After Delta

  • The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
  • As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
  • Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Oct 2021 Does the Pause in Globalization Threaten U.S. Inflation Post-Covid?

  • Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
  • ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
  • Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Oct 2021 Soaring Energy Prices will Hurt Output, but the News is not all Bad

  • Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on manufacturing production, but by much less than in Europe.
  • Sustained high oil and gas prices will spur business capex as firms seek to reduce energy intensity.
  • Hurricane Ida and the downshift in new home sales signal downside risk for September housing starts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Oct 2021 Rebounding Spending on Services will Lift Q4 Consumption

  • Rising food service spending despite Covid Delta is a positive sign for fourth quarter consumption.
  • We're assuming that the drop in cases continues, facilitating a sustained surge in spending.
  • Soaring energy inflation will constrain the rate of in- crease of OER, but it will rise nonetheless.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Oct 2021 Consumers are Awash with Cash, so why has Credit Growth Rebounded

  • Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
  • ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
  • Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Oct 2021 The Energy Price Hit Continues, but it will not Kill Consumption

  • Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
  • ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Oct 2021 Auto Sales Dragged Down Q3 Consumption; Smaller Hit in Q4

  • The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
  • Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
  • New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Oct 2021 Is China's Manufacturing Weakness Hitting the U.S.

  • China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
  • Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
  • The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Sept 2021 The Infrastructure Bill Would Compliment Rising Private Capex

  • The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
  • Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
  • The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Sept 2021 A Government Shutdown Thursday Likely will be Averted, Just

  • We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
  • Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
  • Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2021 The Capex Revival Continues; Boeing will Flatter the August Numbers

  • Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
  • Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, August 2021

  • In one line: Boosted by a rebound in multi-family in the Northeast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2021 Productivity Prospects Revisited: Strong Capex Kicks-in Quickly

  • Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
  • A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
  • Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2021 ADP Likely to Report a Solid Gain in August Private Payrolls

  • We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
  • China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
  • New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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