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Soaring rates threaten to put the brakes on the recovery in capex, but the case is not closed...
...Businesses have never had so much spare cash, and neither have consumers; how will they use it?
Expect more bad housing news today; pending home sales likely fell sharply again in May.
New home sales have already dropped by 30% from their peak, but they have not hit bottom yet.
Inventory is rocketing, so prices are likely to come under severe pressure, very soon.
The surge in the Q1 current account deficit reflects the frenzy of inventory-building; it won’t last.
Chair Powell reiterates that rates will rise until the sequential CPI slows, but that’s not far off.
Last week’s bounce in mortgage applications is a head-fake; the trend is still in free-fall.
Jobless claims likely dipped a bit last week, but the trend is still rising, albeit slowly.
Preliminary Homebase data suggest private payrolls rose by about 200K in June.
Real-time indicators are mixed, but some momentum recently appears to have been lost.
Existing home sales are falling steadily; inventory is surging and prices are starting to crumble.
May’s plunge in housing starts overstates the collapse, but not by much, and worse is coming.
The Philly Fed index confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing rapidly.
Vehicle production has returned to the pre-Covid level; further gains will support rising auto sales.
A central bank promising to hike until inflation is clearly falling is effectively promising to overtighten…
…But the healthy state of the private sector’s finances mean that a recession should be averted.
The softness of May retail sales and downward revisions to April will hit Q2 GDP growth forecasts.
Soft sales, but following a run of strong numbers
The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease.
More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession.
Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong.
The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…
…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.
The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.
The plunge in mortgage demand points to such a rapid drop in home sales that prices could easily fall...
...The risk is that homebuilders cut prices, forcing private sellers to follow suit.
Seasonals point to higher jobless claims today, but the increase in the underlying trend is modest.
The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.
The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.
Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.
Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.
Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.
May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.
We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...
Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.
The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.
Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.
Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.
The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?
Pending home sales likely fell much further in April than forecasters expect.
Whatever happened in April, the floor is not yet in sight; housing-related businesses are going to suffer.
The softening core durable goods orders is not yet alarming, but it needs to be watched closely.
The startling plunge in April new home sales is no fluke; demand has cratered, and price gains will slow.
Core capital goods orders are still rising strongly, despite surging energy prices; can it last?
April durable goods orders likely were flattered by the aircraft and vehicle components.
New home sales likely dropped sharply in April, but the monthly data are very noisy and unreliable.
Prices have overshot as developers have exploited low existing home inventory, but they are now at risk.
Capex plans have softened, but spending in the oil sector is accelerating, and has a long way to go.
Low-income households are under pressure from soaring gas and food prices...
...But aggregate household finances are in good shape, and activity indicators continue to strengthen.
Consumers are drawing down pandemic savings, but they have a very long way to go.
The upturn in jobless claims is no reason to panic; consumer data are still strengthening.
Philly Fed capex plans have tanked, but other surveys are less weak; watch the hard orders data.
The housing rollover is gathering speed; housing- related retail is in for a very tough time.
Don’t be misled by a modest dip in April existing home sales today; bigger declines are coming.
Inventory appears to be rebounding, at last, so the rate of home price increases will start to slow.
The Philly Fed likely dropped sharply this month, but the Ukraine/China hit will not break manufacturing.
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