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Homebuilders continue to slash prices to shift excess supply.
A dramatic improvement in affordability is still needed before sales can recover.
Reversal of January spike in control sales delayed, not cancelled.
Weather and lower rates boosted sales; expect a drop in February
New home sales boosted by a lack of existing home supply.
Sales have bottomed, but the downturn in prices will be the big story for housing in 2023.
January strength in in retail sales unlikely to last, autos excepted.
Downturn in home sales coming to an end, but sustained recovery is a long way off.
The slump in new home prices has much further to run
The fall in prices will gather pace in the months ahead
Consumption on the ropes heading into 2023
Plunge in new home sales still an accident waiting to happen
Rising inventory to accelerate the plunge in prices
Consumption growth still on for solid fourth quarter, but material slowdown coming next year.
Collapse in Chicago PMI is not definitive evidence of anything; pending home sales nearing a floor
Chain store sales growth is slowing; adverse base effects are only part of the story...
...Discount stores appear to be suffering as low- income households are squeezed.
Home prices are falling, probably at an accelerating rate, and consumers are glum.
Strong looking October new home sales and durable goods orders data are misleading
Home sales and prices have further to fall and the trend in core capex orders has slowed markedly.
The upturn in jobless claims is a better guide to what’s really happening; the economy is softening.
Jump in sales impossible to square with the collapse in mortgage demand; current prices can't be sustained
U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence