Collapse in Chicago PMI is not definitive evidence of anything; pending home sales nearing a floor
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Chain store sales growth is slowing; adverse base effects are only part of the story...
...Discount stores appear to be suffering as low- income households are squeezed.
Home prices are falling, probably at an accelerating rate, and consumers are glum.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Strong looking October new home sales and durable goods orders data are misleading
Home sales and prices have further to fall and the trend in core capex orders has slowed markedly.
The upturn in jobless claims is a better guide to what’s really happening; the economy is softening.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Jump in sales impossible to square with the collapse in mortgage demand; current prices can't be sustained
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Business capital spending performed surprisingly well in Q3, but the outlook is deteriorating rapidly.
- Brace for a potential upside shock in today’s job claims numbers; the trend is turning.
- New home sales cannot fall forever but the near-term downside risk is clear.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Forecasts of GDP growth over 4% in Q4 might be right, but at this point they are premature.
- Existing home sales likely fell again in October but can’t drop much further; prices can.
- Used vehicle auction prices nudged up in early November; we hope it’s noise, not signal.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Strong retail sales suggest the consumer will drive fourth quarter GDP growth...
- ...Even as the non-auto manufacturing sector sinks into a mild recession.
- Housing construction is falling fast, but it still has a long way to go, even if demand bottoms soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Upward revisions and solid October signal a much stronger trend in core sales
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- November private payrolls look to have risen by about 250K, little changed from October.
- Surging auto sales and higher gas prices likely boosted October retail sales.
- The Great Margin Recompression is underway, but it has a long, long way to go.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Sales nearing a floor, but slump in prices is just beginning
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Disconnect between sales and mortgage demand can't last much longer
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Eight straight months of falling sales, and still no floor in sight
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Used vehicle prices continue to fall sharply at auction; pass-through into the CPI is inevitable.
- No worries in the jobless claims data yet, but increases in the next few weeks would be disconcerting.
- Existing home sales likely were little changed in September, but don’t be deceived; this is not the floor.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Solid September control sales puts consumption on good footing for fourth quarter
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The renewed surge in mortgage rates is driving demand down further; home sales will follow.
- After 10 straight weeks of undershooting consensus, initial jobless claims clearly are falling.
- ISM services employment points to stronger payrolls, ADP says the opposite; neither is reliable.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Falling imports likely depressed the trade deficit again in August; net trade will boost Q3 GDP growth.
- Inventory-building is slowing, but after valuation adjustment their Q3 GDP contribution will be positive.
- The reported leap in August new home sales is a fluke reading; the trend clearly falling, with further to go.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Don’t believe the home sales jump; confidence recovering
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
- Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
- New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
A pause for breath, but the plunging trend in sales has further to go, and prices are falling
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
