Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

government

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Nov 2021 Omicron is Coming to the U.S., but Worst-Case Scenario Looks Unlikely

  •  The Omicron variant will soon reach the U.S., but its takeover will be slower than Delta's…
  • …Assuming decent protection from vaccination and/or prior infection; that's not yet clear.
  • If Omicron spreads quickly but causes less severe disease, it will not trigger a stall in the recovery

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Oct 2021 Consumption Held Back Q3 GDP Growth; Blame Delta, and Chips

  • GDP growth likely slowed to just 23⁄4%, constrained by temporarily stalled consumption.
  • If growth is far from the consensus, 2.6%, look first at the inventory component, which is a wild card.
  • GDP remains below the level implied by the pre-Covid trend, but the gap will close by next spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Oct 2021 September Payrolls Likely Better than August, but Still Hurt by Delta

  • Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
  • It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
  • As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Oct 2021 Congress has a Long Way to Go, but the BIF and BBB will Pass

  • Shutdown averted, but action on the debt ceiling, infrastructure and social spending will take a while.
  • Households are still adding to their huge pile of sav- ings; post-pandemic firepower is enormous.
  • Homebase data signal a solid increase in payrolls; the St. Louis Fed model tracks only household jobs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Oct 2021 Is China's Manufacturing Weakness Hitting the U.S.

  • China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
  • Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
  • The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Sept 2021 The Infrastructure Bill Would Compliment Rising Private Capex

  • The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
  • Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
  • The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Sept 2021 A Government Shutdown Thursday Likely will be Averted, Just

  • We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
  • Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
  • Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Sept 2021 Crunch Time Approaches as Dem Leaders Seek Deal by Thursday

  • Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
  • ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
  • The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2021 The Delta Wave is Making Itself Felt in Labor Market Data, More to Come

  • Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
  • The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
  • Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Aug 2021 China Decoupling is a Distraction from Cyclical Developments

  • The U.S. and China have reached peak economic integration; the next big move is the other way...
  • ...But this is a longer term trend story; for now, U.S. and Chinese manufacturing are still closely linked.
  • Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Aug 2021 U.S. Covid Cases Set to Peak Soon, Delta Waves are Brutal but Short

  • Delta waves are brutal but relatively short; U.S. daily Covid cases should peak by the end of August.
  • The interruption to the economic recovery should not last beyond September; behavior will lag the data.
  • Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Aug 2021 Falling Layoffs are Welcome, but they don't Guarantee Faster Job Gains

  • The decline in jobless claims tells us gross layoffs are falling, but it says nothing about the pace of hiring.
  • Firms hit by the Delta wave are more likely to cut back recruitment first, before laying off staff.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that supply-chain shortages are no longer intensifying.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Aug 2021 July Data Likely to Show Payrolls Still Struggling to Build Momentum

Homebase employment data point to downside risk against consensus for July payrolls…

…But the problem remains lack of supply, not lack of demand; expect things to change in the fall

Look for unemployment to dip, and another solid increase in average hourly earnings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 July 2021 Brace for Another Outsized Jump in Employment Costs

Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…

…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.

Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2021 Progress Made, but not "Sufficient Further Progress", Yet

Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.

The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.

Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 July 2021 Auto Sales are Falling and Prices are Rising, Supply is the Problem

The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 July 2021 Labor Supply Constrained Until the Fall; the Fed will be Content to Wait

We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from
the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local government sector, while the increase in June private sector payrolls was not statistically significantly bigger than in May.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 July 2021 Upside Risk for June Payrolls, Home base Data Point to 1M Private Jobs

Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence