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Payroll growth likely slowed in July, but only modestly; Homebase data point to 300K or so.
Housing construction activity is falling rapidly, with a further 20%-plus decline likely.
Existing home sales probably fell in June, with inventory up and prices down; the rollover is underway.
Payroll growth has stabilized at about 350K, but smaller gains are coming later in the summer/fall.
Wage gains have slowed far enough to exert material downward pressure on core-core inflation.
The Fed does not need to hike by 75bp this month; the risk of a wage-price spiral is small.
The weakness of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 is concentrated in the net trade component...
...The model expects imports to remain hugely elevated, but that’s unlikely as inventory-building slows.
The modest downshift in consumer credit growth in April won’t last, given the continued rise in gas prices.
The dip in first quarter GDP hides solid consumption and investment numbers; ignore the noise.
Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter; 5% or better is a decent starting assumption.
A further moderation in ECI wage growth is a good bet for Q1, implying easing core-core inflation risk.
Recessions follow sustained curve inversions, but the lag is long; other indicators are more useful.
The private sector is under no aggregate financial pressure; solid growth is a better bet than recession.
The Fed is set to hike by 50bp in May, but June remains an open question.
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