Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

government

20 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed this Month, but it's Still Strong

Payroll growth likely slowed in July, but only modestly; Homebase data point to 300K or so.

Housing construction activity is falling rapidly, with a further 20%-plus decline likely.

Existing home sales probably fell in June, with inventory up and prices down; the rollover is underway.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 July 2022 Job Gains Strong but Likely will Slow

Payroll growth has stabilized at about 350K, but smaller gains are coming later in the summer/fall.

Wage gains have slowed far enough to exert material downward pressure on core-core inflation.

The Fed does not need to hike by 75bp this month; the risk of a wage-price spiral is small.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2022 Net Trade is the Biggest Upside Risk to Q2 GDP Growth

The weakness of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 is concentrated in the net trade component...

...The model expects imports to remain hugely elevated, but that’s unlikely as inventory-building slows.

The modest downshift in consumer credit growth in April won’t last, given the continued rise in gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Apr 2022 Economic Growth will Rebound in Q2, the Fundamentals are Solid

The dip in first quarter GDP hides solid consumption and investment numbers; ignore the noise.

Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter; 5% or better is a decent starting assumption.

A further moderation in ECI wage growth is a good bet for Q1, implying easing core-core inflation risk.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Apr 2022 A 2/10 Inversion is not a Reliable Signal of Impending Recession

Recessions follow sustained curve inversions, but the lag is long; other indicators are more useful.

The private sector is under no aggregate financial pressure; solid growth is a better bet than recession.

The Fed is set to hike by 50bp in May, but June remains an open question.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Mar 2022 February Payrolls Look Solid, but Forecast Margins of Error are Wide

  • The Homebase data suggest February payrolls rose about 600K, but the margin or error is very wide.
  • Wage growth recently has been much too strong for the Fed's comfort, but rising labor supply should help.
  • The third straight drop in the ISM services index was disappointing, but a March rebound is a good bet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Feb 2022 ADP is a Wild Card Today, Like all the January Employment Data

  • January's ADP employment number today is a wild card, thanks to the Omicron Covid hit.
  • Excess labor demand is no longer rising, but it has not yet started to fall.
  • Supply chain pressures are easing, but normalcy is still some way off.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence