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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward... ...But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage...
Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red. The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by...
A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local...
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
The 12% GDP growth we had hoped to see in the second quarter now looks unlikely; we've cut our estimate to an annualized rate of 9 1/2%
The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
The Biden Agenda is Startlingly Ambitious, Achievability is Unclear
A Capital Stock Rebuild and Rising R-star is Still a Good Post-Covid Bet
First Quarter Growth Likely was About 6%, Expect Better in Q2
Core CPI Set To Rebound as the Services Sector Comes Back to Life
M2 Growth will Slow this Year, but it will Exceed 10%; Should You Ca
Would Higher Inflation Upset the Stronger Dollar Story
The $1.9T Covid Bill will be Visible in the Macro Data Very Quickly
Higher-Income People's Spending is Limited by Opportunity, not Cashflow
Asking Rents are Soaring as Demand Returns for Rental Homes
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