Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

gasoline

20 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risks for August Housing Starts, but don't be Deceived

  • Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
  • Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
  • Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2022 US Monitor Another Moderate Core CPI Print is a Good Bet, but not a Certainty

  • Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.  
  • Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
  • Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2022 US Monitor Consumers' Spending is Responding to the Plunge in Gasoline Prices

  • Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
  • The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
  • The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Aug 2022 US Monitor ADP is Back Today, but no Details on the New Method have been Released

  • The ADP employment report returns today, with new methodology; forecasts are, therefore, a joke.
  • The number of JOLTS job openings remains close to the peak, but are the data believable?
  • Consumer confidence is rebounding as falling gas prices boost people’s spending power.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2022 US Monitor Powell To Hint at a 50bp Sep Hike?

Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.

Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances. 

Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Aug 2022 US Monitor Q3 Consumption Started Strongly, Thanks to the Plunge in Gas Prices

 Strong core retail sales numbers for July and upward revisions to Q2 show the consumer is unbowed...

...Consumption looks set for a decent Q2 gain as people spend some of the gas price windfall.

The housing market meltdown continues; expect to see falling sales and prices in today’s July data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Aug 2022 US Monitor Wage Growth is too Fast, but Another 75bp Hike is Unnecessary

Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.

All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.

Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 July 2022 US Monitor Yet More Grim Housing Data Coming; Ignore Case-Shiller Price Numbers

The plunge in mortgage applications points to sub- stantial downside risk for June new home sales.

Case-Shiller will report rising home price in May, but you should ignore the data; prices are now falling.

Chainstore sales growth is refusing to follow the weakening script; is spending still rising so quickly?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 July 2022 US Monitor Too Soon for a Less-Hawkish Fed, but the Swerve is Coming in September

More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.

Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.

As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 July 2022 The Capital Stock Still Needs to be Rebuilt, Capex Plans will Rebound

Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...

But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.

Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 July 2022 Consumption is Holding Up, and Real Incomes will Start to Rebound in July

Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.

Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.

The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2022 Gas Prices to Flatter June Retail Sales, but Core OK too

Headline retail sales in June likely flattered by higher gas prices, but we look for solid core numbers too...

Manufacturing output looks to be stalling; is the auto sector the exception as chip supply improves?

Core PPI inflation is now clearly trending downwards, but the real shift will come when margins start to fall.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 July 2022 Core CPI Likely Moderated in June, Watch Airline Fares and Autos

Behind the headline spike, a June repeat of May’s 0.6% surge in the core CPI seems unlikely...

...Airline fares, used auto prices, hotel room rates all likely were better-behaved; rents are a wild card.

The NFIB survey is consistent with other evidence pointing to easing core-core inflation pressures.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 July 2022 Small Business Owners are Glum, but Look too for Signs of Easing Inflation

We expect a further clear deterioration in small business owners’ sentiment...

...But the labor market is not quite as tight as last summer, and inflation pressures likely have eased.

Real-time data are still holding up, though July 4 distortions obscure the very latest picture.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 July 2022 As Supply Chains Revert to Normal, Margins--and Inflation--have to Fall

Measures of supply-chain stress have returned to recognizably normal ranges...

...Inventory is shooting higher too, ex-autos, so gross margins will have to fall, perhaps rapidly.

The pace of margin re-compression will be the most important driver of falling inflation over the next year

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 July 2022 Q2 Set for the Second Straight Dip in GDP, but it's not a Recession

Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…

…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.

The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 June 2022 Does QT Mean that People Cannot Spend Some of the Savings Stock?

QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...

...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.

Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2022 How the Fed can Thread the Needle, Reducing Inflation with no Recession

A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…

But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…

…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence