Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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24 Feb 2021 No Crack in the Fed Facade as Powell Emphasizes Risk and Uncertainties

24 Feb 2021 No Crack in the Fed Facade as Powell Emphasizes Risk and Uncertainties

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Feb 2021 18:20U.S.

12 Jan 2021 Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation

Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Jan 2021 18:20U.S.

6 Jan 2021 ISM Prices Paid Lifted by Oil Prices, the Real Inflation Risk is Elsewhere

We are not unduly concerned by the jump in theISM manufacturing prices paid index in January, toits highest level since May 2018.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Jan 2021 18:20U.S.

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 16:20U.S.

12 Nov 2020 The 2021 Inflation Outlook is Very Uncertain

We remain resolutely open-minded about the medium-term inflation outlook, on the straightforward grounds that the post-Covid economy will bear little resemblance to any previous...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Nov 2020 18:10U.S.

16 Oct 2020 Upside Risk for September Sales, but the Q4 Outlook is Deteriorating

All the key measures of retail sales have returned to the trends in place before the Covid pandemic, thanks to the enhanced unemployment benefits paid to people who lost their...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Oct 2020 19:20U.S.

17 July 2020 The Surge in Retail Sales is not all that it Seems--and it Might not Last

Headline retail sales in June were just 1% below their January peak, and about 3% below the level they would have reached if the pre-Covid trend had continued.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Jul 2020 19:20U.S.

16 July 2020 State Initial Claims Likely Down Again, but Lookout for PUA Claims

The weekly initial jobless claims numbers have been a useful proxy for the real-time performance of the economy since Covid-19 struck.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jul 2020 19:10U.S.

17 June 2020 May Retail Sales were Startling, but not as Good as the Headlines

Here's something we didn't expect to write: The control measure of retail sales in May was slightly higher than in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Jun 2020 19:20U.S.

16 June 2020 Sales, Production Up in May, but a Very Long Way to Go

The two marquee economic reports today, covering May retail sales and industrial production, will capture the initial rebound after the economy hit bottom sometime in mid-April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jun 2020 19:20U.S.

27 May 2020 The Jump in Consumers' Inflation Expectations Doesn't Matter

Don't be alarmed by the second straight jump in consumers' inflation expectations, captured by the Conference Board's May survey, reported yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th May 2020 19:20U.S.

15 May 2020 Food Service, Autos and Gas Drops Signal Downside Retail Sales Risk

Our current base-case forecast for the second quarter is a 30% annualized drop in GDP, based on our assessment of the hit to discretionary spending by both businesses and...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th May 2020 19:20U.S.

12 May 2020 Downside Risk to April CPI from Rent, Apparel, Airline Fares, Lodging, Autos

The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th May 2020 19:20U.S.

21 Apr 2020 All Pain and No Gain as Oil Prices Plunge, the Windfall is Unspent

Under normal circumstances, the boost to consumption from the astonishing collapse in oil prices would act as a substantial--though not complete--offset to the hit to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Apr 2020 19:20U.S.

23 Mar 2020 The Growth of European Covid-19 Cases Slowed Sharply Yesterday

The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

14 Jan 2020 Core CPI Inflation is Contained, but Risks Abound for December

Our base case is that the core CPI rose 0.2% in December, but the net risk probably is to the upside. We see scope for significant increases in sectors as diverse as used autos,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Jan 2020 18:20U.S.

13 Jan 2020 Labor Market Strength Means no Need for the Fed to Ease this Year

Here's the bottom line: U.S. businesses appear to have over-reacted to the impact of the trade war in their responses to most surveys, pointing to a serious downturn in...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Jan 2020 18:20U.S.

7 Jan 2020 Oil Prices haven't Risen Enough to Disturb Consumers, Yet

The jump in oil prices over the past two trading days eventually will lift retail gasoline prices by about 35 cents per gallon, or 131⁄2%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Jan 2020 18:20U.S.

6 Jan 2020 Markets in Defensive Crouch, Awaiting Iran's Response

It's hard to overstate the geopolitical importance of Friday's assassination of Qassim Soleimani, architect of Iran's external military activity for more than 20 years...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Jan 2020 18:20U.S.

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