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24 Feb 2021 No Crack in the Fed Facade as Powell Emphasizes Risk and Uncertainties
23rd Feb 2021 18:20U.S.
Stimulus Payments Likely Boosted Retail Sales in January
16th Feb 2021 18:20U.S.
Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation
11th Jan 2021 18:20U.S.
We are not unduly concerned by the jump in theISM manufacturing prices paid index in January, toits highest level since May 2018.
5th Jan 2021 18:20U.S.
In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...
15th Dec 2020 16:20U.S.
We remain resolutely open-minded about the medium-term inflation outlook, on the straightforward grounds that the post-Covid economy will bear little resemblance to any previous...
11th Nov 2020 18:10U.S.
All the key measures of retail sales have returned to the trends in place before the Covid pandemic, thanks to the enhanced unemployment benefits paid to people who lost their...
15th Oct 2020 19:20U.S.
Headline retail sales in June were just 1% below their January peak, and about 3% below the level they would have reached if the pre-Covid trend had continued.
16th Jul 2020 19:20U.S.
The weekly initial jobless claims numbers have been a useful proxy for the real-time performance of the economy since Covid-19 struck.
15th Jul 2020 19:10U.S.
Here's something we didn't expect to write: The control measure of retail sales in May was slightly higher than in February.
16th Jun 2020 19:20U.S.
The two marquee economic reports today, covering May retail sales and industrial production, will capture the initial rebound after the economy hit bottom sometime in mid-April.
15th Jun 2020 19:20U.S.
Don't be alarmed by the second straight jump in consumers' inflation expectations, captured by the Conference Board's May survey, reported yesterday.
26th May 2020 19:20U.S.
Our current base-case forecast for the second quarter is a 30% annualized drop in GDP, based on our assessment of the hit to discretionary spending by both businesses and...
14th May 2020 19:20U.S.
The 0.1% dip in the core CPI in March was the first outright decline in three years, but we expect another-- and bigger--decline in today's April numbers.
11th May 2020 19:20U.S.
Under normal circumstances, the boost to consumption from the astonishing collapse in oil prices would act as a substantial--though not complete--offset to the hit to...
20th Apr 2020 19:20U.S.
The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual...
22nd Mar 2020 19:20U.S.
Our base case is that the core CPI rose 0.2% in December, but the net risk probably is to the upside. We see scope for significant increases in sectors as diverse as used autos,...
13th Jan 2020 18:20U.S.
Here's the bottom line: U.S. businesses appear to have over-reacted to the impact of the trade war in their responses to most surveys, pointing to a serious downturn in...
12th Jan 2020 18:20U.S.
The jump in oil prices over the past two trading days eventually will lift retail gasoline prices by about 35 cents per gallon, or 131⁄2%.
6th Jan 2020 18:20U.S.
It's hard to overstate the geopolitical importance of Friday's assassination of Qassim Soleimani, architect of Iran's external military activity for more than 20 years...
5th Jan 2020 18:20U.S.
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