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Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.
Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances.
Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.
Strong core retail sales numbers for July and upward revisions to Q2 show the consumer is unbowed...
...Consumption looks set for a decent Q2 gain as people spend some of the gas price windfall.
The housing market meltdown continues; expect to see falling sales and prices in today’s July data.
Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.
All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.
Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.
The plunge in mortgage applications points to sub- stantial downside risk for June new home sales.
Case-Shiller will report rising home price in May, but you should ignore the data; prices are now falling.
Chainstore sales growth is refusing to follow the weakening script; is spending still rising so quickly?
More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.
Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.
As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.
Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...
But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.
Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.
Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.
Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.
The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.
Headline retail sales in June likely flattered by higher gas prices, but we look for solid core numbers too...
Manufacturing output looks to be stalling; is the auto sector the exception as chip supply improves?
Core PPI inflation is now clearly trending downwards, but the real shift will come when margins start to fall.
Behind the headline spike, a June repeat of May’s 0.6% surge in the core CPI seems unlikely...
...Airline fares, used auto prices, hotel room rates all likely were better-behaved; rents are a wild card.
The NFIB survey is consistent with other evidence pointing to easing core-core inflation pressures.
We expect a further clear deterioration in small business owners’ sentiment...
...But the labor market is not quite as tight as last summer, and inflation pressures likely have eased.
Real-time data are still holding up, though July 4 distortions obscure the very latest picture.
Measures of supply-chain stress have returned to recognizably normal ranges...
...Inventory is shooting higher too, ex-autos, so gross margins will have to fall, perhaps rapidly.
The pace of margin re-compression will be the most important driver of falling inflation over the next year
Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…
…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.
The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.
QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...
...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.
Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.
A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…
But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…
…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.
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