Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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26 Jan 2022 No QT Announcement Today, Even if FOMC Members have Agreed a Plan

  • The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
  • Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
  • Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Jan 2022 Consumers are Under Pressure, but the Omicron Hit will Fade Soon

  • Consumers are under short-term pressure from all sides, but the turn in spending will likely come soon.
  • Payrolls will be a bit slower to respond to falling Covid cases than the real-time activity data...
  • ...The January and February reports will both be scarred by Omicron, even as inflation rises further.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Jan 2022 Soaring Oil Prices will Lift Headline Inflation, and Slow the Core Decline

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Nov 2021 Surging Retail Sales Signal a Solid Start to Fourth Quarter Spending

  • Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
  • ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
  • Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Nov 2021 Is Small Business Sentiment Rebounding as Delta Cases Fall?

  • Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
  • The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
  • Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2021 Core Capex Orders Soar, but Look Out for a September Pause

  • Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
  • Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
  • New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Oct 2021 Retail Sales Growth Likely Dipped in September, as Delta Began to Fade

  • Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
  • …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
  • Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Aug 2021 Home Price Gains are Slowing, Case- Shiller will Catch Up, Eventually

  • The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
  • Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
  • Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2021 July's Retail Sales Likely Escaped the Delta Hit, August is at Risk

July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...

...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.

Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 July 2021 Is the Treasury Market Really Sigalling Slower Growth?

We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in oil prices will materially slow the rate of U.S. economic growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence