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Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.
The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.
Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.
Measures of supply-chain stress have returned to recognizably normal ranges...
...Inventory is shooting higher too, ex-autos, so gross margins will have to fall, perhaps rapidly.
The pace of margin re-compression will be the most important driver of falling inflation over the next year
QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...
...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.
Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.
The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…
…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.
Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.
A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…
But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…
…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.
Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.
PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.
Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.
The weakness of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 is concentrated in the net trade component...
...The model expects imports to remain hugely elevated, but that’s unlikely as inventory-building slows.
The modest downshift in consumer credit growth in April won’t last, given the continued rise in gas prices.
As Memorial Day distortions fade, we see few signs that consumers are scaling back spending.
The surge in retail and wholesale inventory-building is coming to an end, pushing down imports.
Spiking consumer credit is not necessarily a sign of broad financial distress due to soaring gas prices.
Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.
Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.
May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.
We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...
Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.
The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.
Imports drop as the pace of inventory rebuilding slows; trade will add to Q2 GDP growth
Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.
Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.
The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?
Don’t be misled by a modest dip in April existing home sales today; bigger declines are coming.
Inventory appears to be rebounding, at last, so the rate of home price increases will start to slow.
The Philly Fed likely dropped sharply this month, but the Ukraine/China hit will not break manufacturing.
Retail and wholesale profit margins fell in April, in a sign of better inflation news ahead.
Progress will be uneven, but the ongoing inventory rebuild should push margins down over the next year.
Jobless claims seem to have stabilized at about 200K per week; nothing to worry about.
The dip in first quarter GDP hides solid consumption and investment numbers; ignore the noise.
Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter; 5% or better is a decent starting assumption.
A further moderation in ECI wage growth is a good bet for Q1, implying easing core-core inflation risk.
Massively distorted by trade and inventories; Q2 will be much better
The trade deficit is rocketing again as inventory- rebuilding pulls in imports of consumer goods.
Expect a fifth straight drop in pending home sales in March, with more to come.
Core capex orders rose at a decent pace in the first quarter, but the second will be better.
Mobility data signal upside risk to March core retail sales; the headline will be boosted by gas prices.
Real consumption appears to be on course for a solid 4% increase; spending on services is rebounding too.
Core PPI inflation probably has peaked, but the downshift will be slower than for the core CPI.
Plunging used vehicle prices explains the undershoot in the March core CPI; they have much further to fall.
Some other components rose by less than recent trends, but too soon to know if it's more than noise.
Rebounding airline fares and profit margins signal upside risk for the March core PPI.
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