Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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28 Mar 2022 How to Think About U.S. Recession Risk: It's all About the Process

  • Recessions are the process by which the private sec- tor unwinds financial imbalances...
  • ...Absent financial imbalances, recessions happen only after large exogenous shocks.
  • The U.S. private sector is in good financial shape, so near-term recession is unlikely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Feb 2022 Markets Expect too Much from the Fed in 2022, but not Enough Later

  • Markets are becoming too aggressive on the likely pace of Fed tightening this year...
  • ...But they aren't aggressive enough on the question of the terminal rate, given rising productivity growth.
  • They won't start to talk about rising r-star until much later this year, once the current inflation spike is over.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Jan 2022 No QT Announcement Today, Even if FOMC Members have Agreed a Plan

  • The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
  • Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
  • Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Jan 2022 A Headlong Rush to Balance Sheet Rundown is Risky, for Everyone

  • The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
  • If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
  • We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Dec 2021 Can the Private Sector Cope with More than a Modest Fed Tightening?

  • Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
  • Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
  • Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Dec 2021 The Omicron Wave will Hit Activity Hard, but not for Long; we Hope

The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.

We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.

The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence