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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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ADP’s employment measure is unreliable; we will be sticking to our 250K payroll forecast.
Job openings are trending downwards but not collapsing; wage growth is slowing more quickly.
The October trade deficit likely fell slightly, but the big correction in imports is over.
The trade and inventory data will push down Q3 GDP growth forecasts
Net trade will rescue Q3 GDP; expect upward revisions to forecasts
The August inflation data will have to be great if the Fed is to pivot to 50bp in September...
...Whatever happens to rates in the near-term, the Fed is uneasy at market forecasts of lower rates in 2023.
The plunging trade deficit and stronger consumption mean Q3 GDP forecasts are much too low.
Net trade set to make a hefty contribution to Q3 GDP growth
Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.
Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances.
Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.
Net trade and inventories look set to drive up Q3 GDP growth; we tentatively look for about 5%.
Imports are falling as demand for inventories fades; retailers over-ordered and now have excess inventory.
New home sales likely fell again in July, and prices are now under severe pressure as supply mounts.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.
With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet.
The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.
The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.
Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.
Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.
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