Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

foreign trade

30 Nov 2022 US Monitor ADP is not Reliable; We're Sticking to our 250K Payroll Forecast

 ADP’s employment measure is unreliable; we will be sticking to our 250K payroll forecast.

Job openings are trending downwards but not collapsing; wage growth is slowing more quickly.

The October trade deficit likely fell slightly, but the big correction in imports is over.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Oct 2022 US Monitor Foreign Trade Drove Q3 GDP; did the Deficit Fall Again in September?

  • Foreign trade likely was the biggest single driver of Q3 GDP growth, mostly due to plunging imports…
  • …GDP forecasts could change markedly after the September advance trade and inventory data today.
  • Downside risk for September new home sales; the reported August jump is not sustainable

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for Q3 GDP Growth, Thanks to Inventory Technicalities

  • We see upside risk for third quarter GDP growth; net trade likely drove growth to 3.1%.
  • Demand for labor is slowing, despite very low and stable initial jobless claims.
  • September durable goods orders likely boosted by aircraft, but core capex looks solid too, for now.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, September

The trade and inventory data will push down Q3 GDP growth forecasts

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, August

Net trade will rescue Q3 GDP; expect upward revisions to forecasts

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Sept 2022 US Monitor The Falling Trade Deficit will Support Q3 GDP; Imports Still Correcting

  • Falling imports likely depressed the trade deficit again in August; net trade will boost Q3 GDP growth.
  • Inventory-building is slowing, but after valuation adjustment their Q3 GDP contribution will be positive.
  • The reported leap in August new home sales is a fluke reading; the trend clearly falling, with further to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Sept 2022 US Monitor Q3 GDP Growth is Still Deeply Uncertain, Clear Upside Risks Persist

  • Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
  • We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
  • Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2022 US Monitor August's Core CPI Mean 75bp is Done, but the Big Picture is Improving

  • The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
  • ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
  • Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2022 US Monitor Vice Chair Brainard Says Lower Margins will Reduce Inflation; Agreed

  • The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
  • Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
  • Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2022 US Monitor Consumers' Spending is Responding to the Plunge in Gasoline Prices

  • Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
  • The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
  • The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for August Payrolls, but the Seasonal is a Wild Card

  • The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
  • Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
  • The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Aug 2022 US Monitor No Shift in Stance from Powell, but 50bp is Still Possible Next Month

 The August inflation data will have to be great if the Fed is to pivot to 50bp in September...

...Whatever happens to rates in the near-term, the Fed is uneasy at market forecasts of lower rates in 2023.

The plunging trade deficit and stronger consumption mean Q3 GDP forecasts are much too low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2022 US Monitor Powell To Hint at a 50bp Sep Hike?

Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.

Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances. 

Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Aug 2022 US Monitor Could Foreign Trade and Inventories Drive 5% Q3 GDP Growth

Net trade and inventories look set to drive up Q3 GDP growth; we tentatively look for about 5%.

Imports are falling as demand for inventories fades; retailers over-ordered and now have excess inventory.

New home sales likely fell again in July, and prices are now under severe pressure as supply mounts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 July 2022 US Monitor Eight Weeks of Softer Data will Push the Fed to a Smaller September Hike

The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.

With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet. 

The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 July 2022 US Monitor The Fed will Hike by 75bp Today; Hints of a Dovish Shift Unlikely

The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.

Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.

Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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