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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate. The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once...
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in...
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
The 12% GDP growth we had hoped to see in the second quarter now looks unlikely; we've cut our estimate to an annualized rate of 9 1/2%
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground?
Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply,...
We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak.
We have no doubt that the trend in initial jobless claims will continue to fall over the summer, probably returning to cyclically normal levels in the mid-200K range or even lower.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
Manufacturing is Still Recovering, but Momentum has Eased
Markets and the Fed will React Differently if May Payrolls Rebound
One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention
Noise Likely to Outweight the Signal in April's Retail Sales and IP Data
Too Soon for Taper Talk, Again, Despite the Improving Outlook
Soaring Used Car and Truck Prices will Help Lift Inflation in Q2
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