Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

forecasts

2 Dec 2021 ADP Forces a Payroll Forecast Cut, but Margins of Error are Wide

  • We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
  • Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Nov 2021 Pre-Holiday Data Wave Headlines will be Mixed, Trends Mostly Good

  • Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
  • Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
  • October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Nov 2021 The Fed has Three Conditions for Rate Hikes, One is Still Some Way Off

  • The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
  • ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
  • The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Nov 2021 Surging Retail Sales Signal a Solid Start to Fourth Quarter Spending

  • Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
  • ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
  • Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Nov 2021 Homebase Jobs Look Soft for November, Official Data Likely Better

  • The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
  • ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
  • October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Nov 2021 The Worst is Yet to Come: Core CPI Inflation will Soon Flirt with 7%

  • October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
  • ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
  • Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Nov 2021 October's Core CPI is at the Mercy of Used Cars, Airline Fares, and Rents

  • The October core CPI likely rebounded after a run of benign readings, but the uncertainty is great...
  • Used auto prices, airline fares, and rents all pose clear upside risk, but nothing is certain.
  • The unexpected plunge in PPI new vehicles prices in October likely is a technicality rather than a real shift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Nov 2021 Covid Cases have Flattened, but the Decline Likely will soon Resume

  • The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
  • Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
  • New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Nov 2021 Higher Inflation and Faster Wages Signal Tough Time for "Transitory"

  • The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
  • ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
  • With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Oct 2021 Retail Sales Growth Likely Dipped in September, as Delta Began to Fade

  • Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
  • …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
  • Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Sept 2021 Crunch Time Approaches as Dem Leaders Seek Deal by Thursday

  • Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
  • ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
  • The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Sept 2021 Why are FOMC Members so Split on Rates in 2023 and 2024

  • The huge range of FOMC rate forecasts for 2023 and 2024 likely reflects widely differing labor market views.
  • Both extremes seem unlikely to us, but it will be some time before the range of forecasts narrows.
  • New home sales recently have been a bit stronger than mortgage data imply; upside August risk?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Sept 2021 November Tapering is on Track, Barring Debt Ceiling Chaos

  • The FOMC is on course to taper in November, provid- ed markets aren't in turmoil over the debt ceiling.
  • The Fed's new economic forecasts are much more realistic, but FOMC opinions are spread widely.
  • Chair Powell remains confident that inflation will be contained; upward forecast revisions are no big deal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Sept 2021 Brace for the Warning that Tapering is Coming in November

  • The FOMC and Chair Powell appear prepared to signal that tapering will start in December.
  • Expect more dots for a 2022 rate hike, but the median forecast likely will still be for the first move in 2023.
  • Existing home sales are falling slowly, while inventory is rising; price gains are slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2021 A Tapering Signal, but not a Formal Announcement, from the Fed?

The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.

We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.

Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2021 Delta and Chip Shortages Likely Hit August Retail Sales

  • Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September.
  • Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low, thanks to claims delayed by Hurricane Ida.
  • It's too soon to read any signal about September pay- rolls from the Homebase data; patience required.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Aug 2021 Third Quarter GDP Growth is Coming Under Delta Pressure

  • Thailand's economy defied gravity in Q2, but trade is unlikely to provide much of a boost—if any—in Q3.
  • The Delta squeeze on consumption will persist, but a collapse is unlikely and capex should stay afloat.
  • Don't read too much into the jump in remittances in the Philippines in June; the trend remains weak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Aug 2021 July Data Likely to Show Payrolls Still Struggling to Build Momentum

Homebase employment data point to downside risk against consensus for July payrolls…

…But the problem remains lack of supply, not lack of demand; expect things to change in the fall

Look for unemployment to dip, and another solid increase in average hourly earnings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 July 2021 Growth is Slowing, but that Had to Happen

Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate.

The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once clarity emerges in the labor market.

We see hefty downside risk to June new home sales; forecasts ignore the plunge in mortgage demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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