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Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red. The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by...
In one line: "Progress", but not yet "sufficient further progress".
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...
Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply,...
Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again.
In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...
The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...
Some FOMC Members Want to Talk Tapering; The Leadership Does Not
An Array of Core CPI Components Look Set to Rise in April
April Payrolls Constrained by Lack of Supply, not Demand; Why
Too Soon for Taper Talk, Again, Despite the Improving Outlook
No Taper Talk Yet from Chair Powell, Forecast Improvement is not Enough
The Fed will Stick to its Guns Today, no Changes to QE, and no Taper
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