Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

finance

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

  • The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
  • Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
  • The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Sept 2021 Crunch Time Approaches as Dem Leaders Seek Deal by Thursday

  • Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
  • ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
  • The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2021 The Capex Revival Continues; Boeing will Flatter the August Numbers

  • Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
  • Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 July 2021 WSJ Editorial Board Article Raises Blood Pressure; Best Avoided

The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 July 2021 Faster Job Gains will Support Strong Consumption in H2; Margins to Rise?

The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to maintain—at least—their spending on goods, even as spending on reopening services surges.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence