Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

fed

22 Nov 2022 US Monitor Layoffs are set to Rise, Pointing to Slower Payroll Growth Next Year

  • Layoff announcements are not a reliable guide to jobless claims in the short term...
  • ...But we cannot ignore the upward trend in recent months; claims likely will follow.
  • Regional Fed surveys point to a sharp slowdown in capital spending, but it is not in the hard data yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Nov 2022 US Monitor Better CPI News Looks Sustainable; a 25bp Hike is Possible in December

  • Much of the sharp slowing in the October core CPI looks sustainable, including rents.
  • The Fed is still most likely to hike by 50bp in December, but 25bp is possible…
  • …All eyes on the November employment and CPI reports, both due before the December FOMC. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Labor Market is Softening, Further Fed Hikes are Dangerous

  • Job growth is slowing, on track to slip below 100K by next March, pushing up unemployment.
  • Wage growth appears to be softening, though the data are not quite definitive, yet.
  • If recent trends continue, and core CPI prints moder- ate, Chair Powell’s stance will have to change.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Nov 2022 US Monitor Chair Powell Looks Boxed-in, No Pivot Until the Inflation Data Change

  • Chair Powell wants slower growth, better core inflation, and a looser labor market before the Fed pivots...
  • ...Those criteria have not yet been met, despite better pipeline inflation, so expect no change in tone today.
  • We now expect a 175K increase in October payrolls; a slowdown, but not a rollover.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Oct 2022 US Monitor How the Fed Could be Done After the December Rate Hike

  • If core inflation and wage growth slow simultaneously, the Fed’s last hike will be in December
  • Don’t be deceived by low and stable initial claims; labor demand is slowing markedly.
  • The latest core CPI prints are grim, but recency bias is dangerous; change is coming, for the better

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Oct 2022 US Monitor The Proportionality Rule Suggests a Serious 2023 Recession is Unlikely

  • Recessions are proportional to the prior imbalances, and right now the private sector is in good shape…
  • …A brief over-reaction to the extent of the Fed’s tightening is possible; a deep recession is unlikely.
  • Hints of a pivot played well in markets last week, but the Fed needs better data, soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Oct 2022 US Monitor Don't be Deceived by the Drop in Productivity

  • The drop in productivity across the past three quarters is a reversal of the initial Covid-driven surge…
  • …The trend in productivity is not falling; expect a rebound to begin in Q3.
  • Positive productivity growth and slowing wage gains next year will allow the Fed to stop hiking, then ease. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philly Fed/Jobless Claims

In one line: Philly Fed disappointing but not definitive; trend in claims still below 220K

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Oct 2022 US Monitor The Fed has no Need to Hike Again After November, but they Will

  • Monetary policy soon will be very restrictive, if it isn’t already, but the Fed will tighten further.
  • The risk of a recession in the first half of 2023 has increased markedly…
  • …So we now expect the Fed to ease by 75bp in the second half of next year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2022 US Monitor No Repeat of August's Core CPI Spike?

  • The September core CPI likely was much less scary than in August, but the Fed wants a run of good data.
  • Wildcards for September are vehicle prices, airline fares, and the components which spiked in August…
  • …The range of plausible numbers is wide; it’s impossible to make monthly forecasts with confidence.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Oct 2022 US Monitor More of the Same in the Jobs Data, but the Next Wages Print is Key

  • Markets overreacted to an insignificant dip in unem- ployment because the Fed overreacts to the data too.
  • The slowing in job growth has been very gradual in recent months, but friendly seasonals can’t last.
  • The slowing in wage gains still looks more like a sta- tistical quirk than a trend, but October data are key.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Oct 2022 US Monitor Plunging Job Openings are a Potential Fed Game-Changer

  • The sudden and dramatic plunge in the August job openings will move the Fed, if it persists...
  • ...Similar reports for the next two months make 125bp of tightening by year-end very unlikely.
  • The ISM services index likely dipped in September; the housing collapse and falling stock prices hurt.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Sept 2022 US Monitor Why is the Fed so Determined that the Labor Market Must Weaken

  • Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
  • ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
  • But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Sept 2022 US Monitor No Let-up in the Fed's Hawkishness, but Opinions are Split

  • Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
  • Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
  • The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2022 US Monitor Expect 75bp Today, and a Forecast of a Further 100bp by Year-end

  • The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
  • ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
  • Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risks for August Housing Starts, but don't be Deceived

  • Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
  • Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
  • Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Sept 2022 US Monitor Q3 GDP Growth is Still Deeply Uncertain, Clear Upside Risks Persist

  • Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
  • We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
  • Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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