Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

fed

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims/Philadelphia Fed, March

Weather hit to claims reverses; Philly Fed is much weakter than it looks

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts/Philly Fed

Housing starts close to a floor; conflicting signals from the regional Fed surveys

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, January/Weeklu Jobless Claims

Philly Fed stabilizing, maybe; claims don't tell the whole labor market story

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

12 Jan 2023 US Monitor December's Core CPI Data Should Reinforce the Improving Trend

  • A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
  • Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
  • Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Dec 2022 US Monitor The Fed Can Still Thread the Needle, but the Risk of Failure is High

  • Our base case remains that inflation will be van- quished without a recession...
  • ...But the Fed’s determination to take zero inflation risk makes the balancing act much more difficult.
  • Core inflation is now falling, but the Fed wants wage growth to moderate; leading indicators are favorable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philly Fed/Empire State/Jobless Claims

Mixed industrial surveys; don't believe the drop in claims

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

22 Nov 2022 US Monitor Layoffs are set to Rise, Pointing to Slower Payroll Growth Next Year

  • Layoff announcements are not a reliable guide to jobless claims in the short term...
  • ...But we cannot ignore the upward trend in recent months; claims likely will follow.
  • Regional Fed surveys point to a sharp slowdown in capital spending, but it is not in the hard data yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Nov 2022 US Monitor Better CPI News Looks Sustainable; a 25bp Hike is Possible in December

  • Much of the sharp slowing in the October core CPI looks sustainable, including rents.
  • The Fed is still most likely to hike by 50bp in December, but 25bp is possible…
  • …All eyes on the November employment and CPI reports, both due before the December FOMC. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Labor Market is Softening, Further Fed Hikes are Dangerous

  • Job growth is slowing, on track to slip below 100K by next March, pushing up unemployment.
  • Wage growth appears to be softening, though the data are not quite definitive, yet.
  • If recent trends continue, and core CPI prints moder- ate, Chair Powell’s stance will have to change.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Nov 2022 US Monitor Chair Powell Looks Boxed-in, No Pivot Until the Inflation Data Change

  • Chair Powell wants slower growth, better core inflation, and a looser labor market before the Fed pivots...
  • ...Those criteria have not yet been met, despite better pipeline inflation, so expect no change in tone today.
  • We now expect a 175K increase in October payrolls; a slowdown, but not a rollover.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Oct 2022 US Monitor How the Fed Could be Done After the December Rate Hike

  • If core inflation and wage growth slow simultaneously, the Fed’s last hike will be in December
  • Don’t be deceived by low and stable initial claims; labor demand is slowing markedly.
  • The latest core CPI prints are grim, but recency bias is dangerous; change is coming, for the better

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Oct 2022 US Monitor The Proportionality Rule Suggests a Serious 2023 Recession is Unlikely

  • Recessions are proportional to the prior imbalances, and right now the private sector is in good shape…
  • …A brief over-reaction to the extent of the Fed’s tightening is possible; a deep recession is unlikely.
  • Hints of a pivot played well in markets last week, but the Fed needs better data, soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Oct 2022 US Monitor Don't be Deceived by the Drop in Productivity

  • The drop in productivity across the past three quarters is a reversal of the initial Covid-driven surge…
  • …The trend in productivity is not falling; expect a rebound to begin in Q3.
  • Positive productivity growth and slowing wage gains next year will allow the Fed to stop hiking, then ease. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philly Fed/Jobless Claims

In one line: Philly Fed disappointing but not definitive; trend in claims still below 220K

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Oct 2022 US Monitor The Fed has no Need to Hike Again After November, but they Will

  • Monetary policy soon will be very restrictive, if it isn’t already, but the Fed will tighten further.
  • The risk of a recession in the first half of 2023 has increased markedly…
  • …So we now expect the Fed to ease by 75bp in the second half of next year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2022 US Monitor No Repeat of August's Core CPI Spike?

  • The September core CPI likely was much less scary than in August, but the Fed wants a run of good data.
  • Wildcards for September are vehicle prices, airline fares, and the components which spiked in August…
  • …The range of plausible numbers is wide; it’s impossible to make monthly forecasts with confidence.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Oct 2022 US Monitor More of the Same in the Jobs Data, but the Next Wages Print is Key

  • Markets overreacted to an insignificant dip in unem- ployment because the Fed overreacts to the data too.
  • The slowing in job growth has been very gradual in recent months, but friendly seasonals can’t last.
  • The slowing in wage gains still looks more like a sta- tistical quirk than a trend, but October data are key.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Oct 2022 US Monitor Plunging Job Openings are a Potential Fed Game-Changer

  • The sudden and dramatic plunge in the August job openings will move the Fed, if it persists...
  • ...Similar reports for the next two months make 125bp of tightening by year-end very unlikely.
  • The ISM services index likely dipped in September; the housing collapse and falling stock prices hurt.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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