U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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fast; inflation expectations dip a bit
- A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
- Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
- Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Our base case remains that inflation will be van- quished without a recession...
- ...But the Fed’s determination to take zero inflation risk makes the balancing act much more difficult.
- Core inflation is now falling, but the Fed wants wage growth to moderate; leading indicators are favorable.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The FOMC statement points to slower rate hikes, but Chair Powell seems unconvinced.
- Pursuing certainty of 2% or lower inflation implies aggressive further hikes; will the FOMC agree?
- …The best outcome would be that the data cooperate, facilitating a December switch to 50bp.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Chair Powell wants slower growth, better core inflation, and a looser labor market before the Fed pivots...
- ...Those criteria have not yet been met, despite better pipeline inflation, so expect no change in tone today.
- We now expect a 175K increase in October payrolls; a slowdown, but not a rollover.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- If core inflation and wage growth slow simultaneously, the Fed’s last hike will be in December
- Don’t be deceived by low and stable initial claims; labor demand is slowing markedly.
- The latest core CPI prints are grim, but recency bias is dangerous; change is coming, for the better
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core PPI inflation is falling rapidly, with both the goods and services components rolling over…
- The plunge in PPI services inflation is being driven by margins, which have a long, long, way to fall.
- Supply constraints mostly have gone, and many retailers now have far too much inventory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Significantly higher unemployment might not be needed to depress wage growth...
- ...Plunging inflation expectations could do the job, by depressing wage demands.
- Manufacturing supply problems continue to ease, increasing the downward pressure on margin inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The steady rundown in pandemic savings this year suggests people want to keep spending...
- ...Almost 90% of cumulative Covid savings remain, so they could easily support 2023 consumption.
- The spread between core PCE and core CPI inflation is set to widen, in the right direction for the Fed.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
- Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
- New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
- ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
- But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
- Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
- The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
- ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
- Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
- Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
- Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
- We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
- Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
- Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
- Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
- A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
- ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
- Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.
- Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
- Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
- …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
- Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
- Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
- Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
