Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

fast; inflation expectations dip a bit

12 Jan 2023 US Monitor December's Core CPI Data Should Reinforce the Improving Trend

  • A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
  • Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
  • Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Dec 2022 US Monitor The Fed Can Still Thread the Needle, but the Risk of Failure is High

  • Our base case remains that inflation will be van- quished without a recession...
  • ...But the Fed’s determination to take zero inflation risk makes the balancing act much more difficult.
  • Core inflation is now falling, but the Fed wants wage growth to moderate; leading indicators are favorable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Statement Pivots, but Chair Powell isn't Budging, Yet

  • The FOMC statement points to slower rate hikes, but Chair Powell seems unconvinced.
  • Pursuing certainty of 2% or lower inflation implies aggressive further hikes; will the FOMC agree?
  • …The best outcome would be that the data cooperate, facilitating a December switch to 50bp. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Nov 2022 US Monitor Chair Powell Looks Boxed-in, No Pivot Until the Inflation Data Change

  • Chair Powell wants slower growth, better core inflation, and a looser labor market before the Fed pivots...
  • ...Those criteria have not yet been met, despite better pipeline inflation, so expect no change in tone today.
  • We now expect a 175K increase in October payrolls; a slowdown, but not a rollover.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Oct 2022 US Monitor How the Fed Could be Done After the December Rate Hike

  • If core inflation and wage growth slow simultaneously, the Fed’s last hike will be in December
  • Don’t be deceived by low and stable initial claims; labor demand is slowing markedly.
  • The latest core CPI prints are grim, but recency bias is dangerous; change is coming, for the better

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Oct 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Fast

  • Core PPI inflation is falling rapidly, with both the goods and services components rolling over…
  • The plunge in PPI services inflation is being driven by margins, which have a long, long, way to fall.
  • Supply constraints mostly have gone, and many retailers now have far too much inventory.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Oct 2022 US Monitor Can Wage Inflation Slow Without a Steep Rise in Unemployment

  • Significantly higher unemployment might not be needed to depress wage growth...
  • ...Plunging inflation expectations could do the job, by depressing wage demands.
  • Manufacturing supply problems continue to ease, increasing the downward pressure on margin inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Sept 2022 US Monitor Savings Rundown Suggests People Want to Keep Spending

  • The steady rundown in pandemic savings this year suggests people want to keep spending...
  • ...Almost 90% of cumulative Covid savings remain, so they could easily support 2023 consumption.
  • The spread between core PCE and core CPI inflation is set to widen, in the right direction for the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Sept 2022 US Monitor Why is the Fed so Determined that the Labor Market Must Weaken

  • Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
  • ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
  • But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Sept 2022 US Monitor No Let-up in the Fed's Hawkishness, but Opinions are Split

  • Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
  • Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
  • The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2022 US Monitor Expect 75bp Today, and a Forecast of a Further 100bp by Year-end

  • The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
  • ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
  • Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risks for August Housing Starts, but don't be Deceived

  • Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
  • Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
  • Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Sept 2022 US Monitor Q3 GDP Growth is Still Deeply Uncertain, Clear Upside Risks Persist

  • Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
  • We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
  • Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2022 US Monitor August's Core CPI Mean 75bp is Done, but the Big Picture is Improving

  • The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
  • ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
  • Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2022 US Monitor Another Moderate Core CPI Print is a Good Bet, but not a Certainty

  • Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.  
  • Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
  • Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2022 US Monitor Vice Chair Brainard Says Lower Margins will Reduce Inflation; Agreed

  • The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
  • Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
  • Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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