Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

energy

12 Nov 2021 The Worst is Yet to Come: Core CPI Inflation will Soon Flirt with 7%

  • October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
  • ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
  • Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Nov 2021 October's Core CPI is at the Mercy of Used Cars, Airline Fares, and Rents

  • The October core CPI likely rebounded after a run of benign readings, but the uncertainty is great...
  • Used auto prices, airline fares, and rents all pose clear upside risk, but nothing is certain.
  • The unexpected plunge in PPI new vehicles prices in October likely is a technicality rather than a real shift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2021 Core Capex Orders Soar, but Look Out for a September Pause

  • Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
  • Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
  • New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Oct 2021 Cashflow--and Cash Stocks--are More Important than Confidence

  • The Delta Covid wave has depressed consumers' confidence, but not for much longer.
  • In any event, the key driver of spending next year will be cashflow and the rundown of accumulated savings
  • New home sales likely rose again in September, as the re-rebound continues, but the Ida hit is uncertain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Oct 2021 Soaring Energy Prices will Hurt Output, but the News is not all Bad

  • Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on manufacturing production, but by much less than in Europe.
  • Sustained high oil and gas prices will spur business capex as firms seek to reduce energy intensity.
  • Hurricane Ida and the downshift in new home sales signal downside risk for September housing starts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Oct 2021 Rebounding Spending on Services will Lift Q4 Consumption

  • Rising food service spending despite Covid Delta is a positive sign for fourth quarter consumption.
  • We're assuming that the drop in cases continues, facilitating a sustained surge in spending.
  • Soaring energy inflation will constrain the rate of in- crease of OER, but it will rise nonetheless.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Oct 2021 Retail Sales Growth Likely Dipped in September, as Delta Began to Fade

  • Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
  • …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
  • Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2021 September's Core CPI Likely Rose Modestly, but Ongoing Risks Abound

  • We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
  • Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
  • The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Oct 2021 The Energy Price Hit Continues, but it will not Kill Consumption

  • Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
  • ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Aug 2021 Home Price Gains are Slowing, Case- Shiller will Catch Up, Eventually

  • The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
  • Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
  • Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2021 Covid CPI Chaos Persists;,Expect Mr. Powell to Stick to

Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 July 2021 Auto Sales are Falling and Prices are Rising, Supply is the Problem

The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 May 2021 Real Shifts in Inflation Expectations Matter for Wages (Probably)

Why should we care about inflation expectations? After all, we don't care much about what people think about other aspects of the economy, because they tend to respond to events which have already happened, like prior movements in stock prices, gas prices, elections, and interest rates.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 May 2021 Inflation Expectations Should Fall in H2 as Food, Energy Pressure Fades

We argued in the Monitor yesterday that much of the surge in survey-based measures of inflation expectations likely can be blamed on higher prices for food and gasoline.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 May 2021 One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention

A year or so from now, if the economy is beset by stubbornly high inflation, and the Fed is hammering asset prices by aggressively tightening policy in order to stem a further upward twist of the spiral, it's a fair bet that we'll look back to last week's data and say: "That's when they should have thrown up their hands, admitted they underestimated the inflation pressures triggered by unprecedented policy easing, and signaled a shift in policy."

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence