Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Disappointing.
- Job growth has strengthened from the summer lows, but seems not yet to be back to the pre-Delta pace.
- Participation is the key variable for the Fed; it has to rise, soon, in order to constrain wage gains.
- Hourly earnings growth in November likely was limit- ed by a calendar quirk; expect stronger in December.
- We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
- The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
- Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.
- ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
- Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
- The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?
- Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
- Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
- October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.
- The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
- ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
- The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.
- The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
- ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
- October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.
- If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
- Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
- These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.
- In one line: The re-rebound is underway, as Covid cases subside.
- A combination of Homebase and ADP signals a 525K payroll print for October...
- ...The rebound in activity as Delta cases fell came too late to drive a bigger gain; November will be better.
- Rapid wage gains likely continued last month, but the real test will come when participation rebounds.
- Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
- The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
- Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.
- In one line: A better shot at being right than in September?
- The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
- Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
- Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.
- The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
- ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
- With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.
- Employment costs likely accelerated in the third quarter, but are they rising dangerously fast...
- ...Or will faster wage gains be offset by stronger pro- ductivity growth, as in the late nineties?
- The softness of third quarter GDP growth has nothing to say about the fourth; expect a rebound.
- The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
- As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
- Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.
- Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
- ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
- Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.
- Rising food service spending despite Covid Delta is a positive sign for fourth quarter consumption.
- We're assuming that the drop in cases continues, facilitating a sustained surge in spending.
- Soaring energy inflation will constrain the rate of in- crease of OER, but it will rise nonetheless.
- We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
- Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
- The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.