PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, October

The rebalancing continues; chance of a Dec hike dips further

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, October

Ignore, it's useless

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, September

Flattered by S&L education jobs and an unsustainable rebound in the private sector

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, September

Unreliable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, August

Unemployment and wages data reduce September hike odds still further

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, August

In line with the trend, but not a reliable indicator

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Employment, July

Job growth is slowing gradually, no sign of imminent rollover.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: ADP Employment, July

No implications for payrolls

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: ADP Employment, June and Weekly Jobless Claims, 01 July

Strength all round, but none of it definitive

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Employment, May

Wild, but a Fed pause is still a good bet, just

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ADP Employment, May

A second straight upside surprise, but no clear signal for payrolls

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

1 June 2023 US Monitor ADP Set to Report Slower Job Gains, but NFIB Hiring Plans Matter More

• We expect a clear slowing in ADP employment in May, but we care more about NFIB hiring intentions.
• Weak regional surveys and soft China PMIs point to a dip in ISM manufacturing; the sector is in recession.
• Auto sales likely dipped in May; the trend appears to be peaking as rates rocket and credit tightens.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.