The Fed will not like the renewed strength in wages.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Homebase small business employment data point to a 250K increase in October payrolls...
...But whatever happened in October, job growth will slow markedly over the next few months.
A fourth straight modest hourly earnings number would strongly suggest the trend is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
ADP’s employment measure is unreliable; we will be sticking to our 250K payroll forecast.
Job openings are trending downwards but not collapsing; wage growth is slowing more quickly.
The October trade deficit likely fell slightly, but the big correction in imports is over.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Much of the sharp slowing in the October core CPI looks sustainable, including rents.
- The Fed is still most likely to hike by 50bp in December, but 25bp is possible…
- …All eyes on the November employment and CPI reports, both due before the December FOMC.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Control of the Senate might not be decided until December; it’s unlikely to be known tonight.
- The drop in household employment in October was noise, not a sign of plunging payrolls ahead.
- Small business sentiment under renewed pressure from falling stock prices and higher rates.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The labor market is softening; the data will tell the Fed not to hike in 2023.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Markets don’t like 3.5% unemployment, but is wage growth slowing?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Homebase employment data suggest Septem- ber payrolls rose by about 300K.
- The unwinding of August’s calendar quirk signals upside risk for average hourly earnings.
- Job growth is strong enough to push unemployment down, but it is being offset by rising participation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The renewed surge in mortgage rates is driving demand down further; home sales will follow.
- After 10 straight weeks of undershooting consensus, initial jobless claims clearly are falling.
- ISM services employment points to stronger payrolls, ADP says the opposite; neither is reliable.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
- Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
- The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Job growth likely is slowing, but it is still too strong for the Fed, and wage gains are too fast too...
- Participation appears still to be rising, but it’s not yet high enough to cap wage growth.
- The services PMI points to downside risk for ISM services; housing is hurting both surveys.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Job gains moderating, participation rising; the chance of 50bp this month just increased
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
- Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
- The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Rising vehicle production will feed through into higher sales, but August looks to have been too soon.
- The manufacturing sector likely slowed again in August, but it is not rolling over.
- ADP’s new payroll methodology is an improvement, but the errors are still large and volatile.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Better than the old ADP, probably, but not necessarily a reliable payroll indicator
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The ADP employment report returns today, with new methodology; forecasts are, therefore, a joke.
- The number of JOLTS job openings remains close to the peak, but are the data believable?
- Consumer confidence is rebounding as falling gas prices boost people’s spending power.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.
Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances.
Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.
Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.
Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.
All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.
Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
