Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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employment

17 Aug 2022 US Monitor First Look at August Payrolls Suggests Another Hefty Increase

The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.

Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.

Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Aug 2022 US Monitor Wage Growth is too Fast, but Another 75bp Hike is Unnecessary

Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.

All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.

Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed this Month, but it's Still Strong

Payroll growth likely slowed in July, but only modestly; Homebase data point to 300K or so.

Housing construction activity is falling rapidly, with a further 20%-plus decline likely.

Existing home sales probably fell in June, with inventory up and prices down; the rollover is underway.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 July 2022 Job Gains Strong but Likely will Slow

Payroll growth has stabilized at about 350K, but smaller gains are coming later in the summer/fall.

Wage gains have slowed far enough to exert material downward pressure on core-core inflation.

The Fed does not need to hike by 75bp this month; the risk of a wage-price spiral is small.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed Again in June; Wage Gains Subdued

Homebase suggests payrolls rose about 225K, provided the seasonal adjustment behaves.

We expect further confirmation that wage growth has slowed, consistent with survey evidence.

The drop in stock prices likely will lift participation among older people, given the hit to their 401(k)s.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2022 The June Minutes are Out of Date Already, Three Weeks is a Long Time

The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...

Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.

Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 June 2022 Payrolls Likely Slowed in June, the Housing Rollover is Gathering Pace

Preliminary Homebase data suggest private payrolls rose by about 200K in June.

Real-time indicators are mixed, but some momentum recently appears to have been lost.

Existing home sales are falling steadily; inventory is surging and prices are starting to crumble.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2022 How the Fed can Thread the Needle, Reducing Inflation with no Recession

A central bank which promises to hike until inflation falls usually would be signalling recession…

But the margin compression, slowing wage gains, and big cash balances make this time different…

…The Fed has a decent chance of avoiding recession and bringing inflation down quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 June 2022 Margin Re-Compression is Key to Lower Inflation, Progress in the PPI

Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.

PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.

Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2022 Payroll Growth Appears to have Slowed, but it Remains Strong

The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.

The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.

Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 June 2022 Recent Data are Mixed, but No Sign of the Feared Rollover

The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.

The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.

Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 May 2022 Homebase Data Suggest May Payrolls Rose by About 250K

The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.

Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.

Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 May 2022 CPI Base Effects Turn Favorable, but Look Out for Sequential Slowing too

Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...

...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.

The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 May 2022 Can Solid Wage Gains and Easing Wage Pressure Co-exist

Payroll growth remains solid, but has slowed from its peaks; signals for late spring and summer are mixed.

Surveys point to job gains at about 250K, but they ignore the huge post-Covid hiring backlog.

If the recent slowdown in wage growth is sustained, the Fed won’t have to keep hiking by 50bp for long.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 May 2022 Payroll Gains Likely Moderated in April, a War Hit or a Slowing Trend

We think April payrolls rose by 300K, a bit below the 380K consensus...

...but it’s not yet clear if the softening is a temporary hit from the Ukraine war, or the start of a trend.

AHE likely rebounded after calendar quirks depressed the February and March readings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 May 2022 It's too Soon for Chair Powell to Sound Less Hawkish

The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...

...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.

Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Apr 2022 Economic Growth will Rebound in Q2, the Fundamentals are Solid

The dip in first quarter GDP hides solid consumption and investment numbers; ignore the noise.

Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter; 5% or better is a decent starting assumption.

A further moderation in ECI wage growth is a good bet for Q1, implying easing core-core inflation risk.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Apr 2022 Real-Time Indicators Holding Up, but Housing Demand is Falling Rapidly

The BA.2 Omicron wave is more of a ripple, so far; has the bullet been dodged? 

Near-real-time indicators mostly are strong, but housing demand is rolling over. 

Homebase data point to a solid increase in April payrolls; perhaps a bit less than in March. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Apr 2022 A 2/10 Inversion is not a Reliable Signal of Impending Recession

Recessions follow sustained curve inversions, but the lag is long; other indicators are more useful.

The private sector is under no aggregate financial pressure; solid growth is a better bet than recession.

The Fed is set to hike by 50bp in May, but June remains an open question.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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