U.S. Documents

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

empire state

US Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, September; Empire State Survey, October 2021

In one line: Delta is boosting sales of goods; what’s happening to services?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Oct 2021 Retail Sales Growth Likely Dipped in September, as Delta Began to Fade

Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
…The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Oct 2021 Is China's Manufacturing Weakness Hitting the U.S.

China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, September 2021

In one line: Puzzlingly great, and it probably can’t last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2021 The Hawks Want to Taper Very Soon, they will be Disappointed

FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2021 July's Retail Sales Likely Escaped the Delta Hit, August is at Risk

July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...

...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.

Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, August 2021

In one line: An inevitable correction; the manufacturing recovery is moderating, not rolling over.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 July 2021 Are Supply-Chain Pressures Starting to Ease, at the Margin

What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims 7 15 21, Philadelphia Fed and Empire State Survey, July 2021

In one line: Progress continues, but the Empire State surge is an outlier. Price pressures peaking?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 June 2021 Mortgage Demand Appears to have Hit Bottom, Modest Recovery in H2

With half the June data now available, we're more confident now in calling the bottom for mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2021 The Tapering Conversation has Begun, but don't Mention Rates

The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no longer below the target.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.