PM Datanote: U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey, January

Plunge in headline index startling but not definitive.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philly Fed/Empire State/Jobless Claims

Mixed industrial surveys; don't believe the drop in claims

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

15 Nov 2022 US Monitor Have PPI Margins Started to Turn Down? They have a Long Way to Go.

• The explosion in margins during the pandemic explains most of the overshoot in core inflation.
• Supply-chain and inventory data point to rapid margin re-compression, starting anytime now.
• The headline Empire State index likely nudged up a bit this month, but watch for falling capex plans.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Oct 2022 US Monitor Manufacturing is Struggling, but the News is not All Terrible

• Manufacturing is struggling, but autos will flatter the production numbers as supply chains ease further.
• Capex plans in the Empire State survey have risen for three straight months, but other surveys are weaker.
• No end in sight for homebuilders’ misery; the latest surge in mortgage rates is yet to work through.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philly Fed/Empire State/Unemployment Claims

Manufacturing stabilising; downward pressure on margins increasing; dip in claims is seasonal fluke

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 July 2022 US Monitor The Housing Rollover is Gathering Pace

Home prices are falling; don’t be deceived by the high year-over-year rate...

Plunging sales and soaring inventory will drive a shift to a new, lower equilibrium level of prices.

Expect a modest bounce in the July Philly Fed, and further signs of easing supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 July 2022 Q2 Set for the Second Straight Dip in GDP, but it's not a Recession

Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…

…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.

The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.