Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

economy

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 May 2022 Mean-Reversion in Margins will Drive Inflation Down, Perhaps Quickly

  • The surge in inflation is largely a margin story; costs have jumped too, but margins are the bigger factor.
  • Absent structural change in markets, margins will mean-revert, pulling inflation down, but how quickly?
  • The Empire State survey looks primed for a correction after the inexplicably strong April reading.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 May 2022 The Dip in April PPI Margins is a Hint of Better Inflation News Ahead

Retail and wholesale profit margins fell in April, in a sign of better inflation news ahead.

Progress will be uneven, but the ongoing inventory rebuild should push margins down over the next year.

Jobless claims seem to have stabilized at about 200K per week; nothing to worry about.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Mar 2022 50bp is Priced-in for May, but Four Reports Could Keep the Fed at 25

  • Markets are convinced the Fed will hike by 50bp on May 4, but it's not yet a done deal…
  • Downside risks to payrolls, core CPI, GDP, and the ECI could yet persuade the Fed to tread cautiously.
  • Would the Fed hike by 50bp if the economy shrank in Q1, and March payrolls were zero?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Mar 2022 How to Think About U.S. Recession Risk: It's all About the Process

  • Recessions are the process by which the private sec- tor unwinds financial imbalances...
  • ...Absent financial imbalances, recessions happen only after large exogenous shocks.
  • The U.S. private sector is in good financial shape, so near-term recession is unlikely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Feb 2022 Welcome (Back) to the Cold War

  • The path of the military conflict in Ukraine is unknowable, but some economic consequences are clear…
  • …The immediate hits to growth and inflation will be 
    bigger in Europe than in the U.S.
  • In the long term, western defense spending has to 
    rise, massively; Europe has to pay for energy security

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Feb 2022 Russia will Come off Worst in the Long Run if Putin Invades Ukraine

  • The extreme uncertainty over developments in Ukraine make the macro implications unclear.
  • A war would drive up energy prices, but Europe wouldn't freeze, given alternative supply sources.
  • The permanent hit to relations with Russia would drive up spending on defense and energy security.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Feb 2022 Base Effects will Lift January Inflation, Monthly Run-Rate has Peaked

  • An Omicron hit to airline fares and lodging costs sug- gests modest downside risk to January's core CPI.
  • Reweighting will not materially change the path of core inflation; fundamentals are what matter.
  • Vehicle prices are the most likely driver of downside inflation surprises in the spring and summer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Feb 2022 A Hit to the ISM from Omicron, but not a Knockout Blow

  • The ISM index likely dipped in January, but a big Omicron hit seems to have been averted.
  • The construction recovery has been driven entirely by housing, but the story is changing…
  • …Industrial and commercial construction is rebounding strongly, but housing activity is set to drop.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Jan 2022 The Omicron Hit is Set to Limit the Fed's Freedom to Act in March

  • We expect zero GDP growth in the first quarter, thanks to Omicron, but inflation will hit new highs.
  • The Fed will hike, but 50bp would be a big stretch after back-to-back declines in payrolls.
  • By the time growth rebounds in the second quarter, inflation will be falling sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Jan 2022 A March Hike but no Balance Sheet Decisions yet, all Options Open

  • Rates will rise in March, but Powell suggests no bal- ance sheet run-off announcement until May...
  • ...Even May is not certain, given the likelihood of a run of very weak activity data between now and then.
  • Q4 GDP growth enjoyed a last-minute boost from surging December inventories, upside risk today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Jan 2022 No QT Announcement Today, Even if FOMC Members have Agreed a Plan

  • The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
  • Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
  • Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Jan 2022 A Headlong Rush to Balance Sheet Rundown is Risky, for Everyone

  • The enthusiasm among some FOMC members for a rapid balance sheet runoff is misplaced.
  • If the FOMC wants to tighten more aggressively, faster rate hikes are less risky and send a clearer signal.
  • We think the runoff will begin in the fall, slowly; market conditions will not allow the Fed to move quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Jan 2022 The First Look at January Payrolls is not for the Faint-Hearted

  • The preliminary Homebase data for December signal falling payrolls, even allowing for upward revisions.
  • The Philly Fed index likely will follow the plunge in the Empire State, hit by the Omicron wave.
  • Jobless claims likely rose for a third straight week, thanks to the seasonals, which will soon reverse.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence