- The preliminary Homebase data for December signal falling payrolls, even allowing for upward revisions.
- The Philly Fed index likely will follow the plunge in the Empire State, hit by the Omicron wave.
- Jobless claims likely rose for a third straight week, thanks to the seasonals, which will soon reverse.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
- The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
- As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The relative softness in December payrolls is hard to explain, but the labor market is still tightening.
- Sub-4% unemployment is enough to convince most FOMC members than an early rate hike is needed.
- We expect the first hike in March, with an increasing chance of three further hikes this year.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
- Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
- Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Faster productivity growth means higher real neutral rates, but can the private sector cope?
- Households and firms are in good shape, with low debt service ratios and transformed balance sheets.
- Markets don't believe the Fed's dotplot, but it's more likely that the markets will have to move up.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.
Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.
The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
- ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
- The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Covid cases are rising in states with low vax rates, waning vax efficacy, and low prior infections...
- ...Colder weather likely is boosting infections in the northern half of the country; expect NE cases to soar.
- New treatment and vaccine protection against severe disease will keep hospitalizations and deaths down.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The tapering announcement today is a done deal; what Chair Powell says about inflation matters more.
- Expect a defense of the transitory arguments, but with a warning of hefty near-term upside risk.
- Homebase data point to a third straight disappointing payroll print, thanks to the Delta Covid wave.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- GDP growth likely slowed to just 23⁄4%, constrained by temporarily stalled consumption.
- If growth is far from the consensus, 2.6%, look first at the inventory component, which is a wild card.
- GDP remains below the level implied by the pre-Covid trend, but the gap will close by next spring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Delta Covid wave has depressed consumers' confidence, but not for much longer.
- In any event, the key driver of spending next year will be cashflow and the rundown of accumulated savings
- New home sales likely rose again in September, as the re-rebound continues, but the Ida hit is uncertain.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
- As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
- Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
- ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
- Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
- …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
- Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- September's core CPI was flattered by unsustainable declines in airline fares, lodging and used car prices...
- ...But rents rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, so all eyes now will be on the October report.
- Stop Press: FOMC minutes confirm tapering to be announced at the November meeting.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
- It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
- As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
- ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
- Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Shutdown averted, but action on the debt ceiling, infrastructure and social spending will take a while.
- Households are still adding to their huge pile of sav- ings; post-pandemic firepower is enormous.
- Homebase data signal a solid increase in payrolls; the St. Louis Fed model tracks only household jobs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
- Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
- The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
- Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
- The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
