Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

economic cycle

2 Dec 2021 ADP Forces a Payroll Forecast Cut, but Margins of Error are Wide

  • We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
  • Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

November 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

  • The Post-Delta Recovery Is Underway....But Inflation Is Set To Soar; Can "Transitory" Hold?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Nov 2021 What has to Happen to Get the Fed off the Inflation Hook?

  • If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
  • Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Nov 2021 October Job Gains Still Constrained by Delta, but Better News is Coming

  • A combination of Homebase and ADP signals a 525K payroll print for October...
  • ...The rebound in activity as Delta cases fell came too late to drive a bigger gain; November will be better.
  • Rapid wage gains likely continued last month, but the real test will come when participation rebounds.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Nov 2021 Powell Adamant Higher Rates are not Yet Part of the FOMC Conversation

  • Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
  • The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
  • Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Nov 2021 Higher Inflation and Faster Wages Signal Tough Time for "Transitory"

  • The Fed faces serious challenges to the "transitory" story over the next few months...
  • ...On top of surging wages, the core CPI is set to surge, and economic growth is likely to rebound.
  • With the Fed set to taper, just as issuance rebounds after the debt ceiling is fixed, expect yields to jump.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

October 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

  • Activity Is Recovering As The Delta Wave Subsides...But The Inflation Outlook Is Cloudy

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Sept 2021 Why are FOMC Members so Split on Rates in 2023 and 2024

  • The huge range of FOMC rate forecasts for 2023 and 2024 likely reflects widely differing labor market views.
  • Both extremes seem unlikely to us, but it will be some time before the range of forecasts narrows.
  • New home sales recently have been a bit stronger than mortgage data imply; upside August risk?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2021 A Tapering Signal, but not a Formal Announcement, from the Fed?

The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.

We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.

Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

September 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

Delta Has Peaked, And The Economy Will Rebound....But The Wave Has Killed Q3 Consumption

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.

Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.

The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking, Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

  • The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
  • Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
  • The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2021 Job-Switching has Soared, the Wage Premium for Switching has not

  • The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
  • ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
  • Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2021 Delta Hit August Jobs Hard, and the Rebound will Take Time

  • Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
  • The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
  • Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

July 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

The Fed Won't Be Rushed To Labor Market Judgement...Supply Will Rise In The Fall, But How Far?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2021 The Tapering Conversation has Begun, but don't Mention Rates

The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no longer below the target.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

June 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

The Reopening Inflation Spike Is Big, And Ongoing....But Will Become A Medium-Term Problem?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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