Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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economic chartbook

20 Sept 2021 A Tapering Signal, but not a Formal Announcement, from the Fed?

The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.

We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.

Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

September 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

Delta Has Peaked, And The Economy Will Rebound....But The Wave Has Killed Q3 Consumption

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.

Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.

The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking, Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

  • The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.
  • Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.
  • The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2021 Job-Switching has Soared, the Wage Premium for Switching has not

  • The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
  • ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
  • Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2021 Delta Hit August Jobs Hard, and the Rebound will Take Time

  • Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
  • The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
  • Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

July 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

The Fed Won't Be Rushed To Labor Market Judgement...Supply Will Rise In The Fall, But How Far?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2021 The Tapering Conversation has Begun, but don't Mention Rates

The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no longer below the target.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

June 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

The Reopening Inflation Spike Is Big, And Ongoing....But Will Become A Medium-Term Problem?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's then-estimate of the Nairu.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 May 2021 Housing Construction is Falling Because Demand has Dropped

The housing boom story is the media and market narrative which just won't die, despite a four-month plunge in mortgage demand, falling home sales, and softening construction activity.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

*May 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook*

The Reopening Is Gathering Momentum...But The Risks To Inflation Are Clear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Apr 2021 The Council of Economic Advisors Might be Right About Inflation, or...

The Council of Economic Advisors waded into the post-Covid inflation debate last week—actually, it would be more accurate to say that they dipped a tentative toe into the water—with a blog post arguing that "the likeliest outlook over the next several months is for inflation to rise modestly... and to fade back to a lower pace thereafter as actual inflation begins to run more in line with longer- run expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

*April 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook*

Is The U.S. Dodging The Covid Variant Bullet?...If It Is, Expect Full Re-Opening By May

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

*March 2021 - U.S. Economic Chartbook*

Is The U.S. Dodging The Covid Variant Bullet?...If It Is, Expect Full Re-Opening By May

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Mar 2021 ISM Services Prices Point to Inflation Beyond Mere Base Effects

The startling jump in the ISM services price index is the main story from the survey, released yesterday, not the modest and likely temporary dip in the headline index.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Mar 2021 The Services Sector is Stirring as Covid Cases Plunge

The easing of Covid restrictions in recent days across many states—including the Carolinas, Massachusetts, Virginia, Arkansas and Wyoming—will support the upward trend in most of the key near-real-time indicators of economic activity. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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