The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.

We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.

Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.

Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.

The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.

The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no longer below the target.

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's then-estimate of the Nairu.

The housing boom story is the media and market narrative which just won't die, despite a four-month plunge in mortgage demand, falling home sales, and softening construction activity.

The Council of Economic Advisors waded into the post-Covid inflation debate last week—actually, it would be more accurate to say that they dipped a tentative toe into the water—with a blog post arguing that "the likeliest outlook over the next several months is for inflation to rise modestly... and to fade back to a lower pace thereafter as actual inflation begins to run more in line with longer- run expectations.

The startling jump in the ISM services price index is the main story from the survey, released yesterday, not the modest and likely temporary dip in the headline index.

The easing of Covid restrictions in recent days across many states—including the Carolinas, Massachusetts, Virginia, Arkansas and Wyoming—will support the upward trend in most of the key near-real-time indicators of economic activity.