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We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.
Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.
New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.
In one line: The underlying core trend remains solid.
Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture.
Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008 disaster.
New home sales are now almost in line with mortgage demand, but price gains are set to slow very sharply
A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today—we look for a 3.0% increase, close to the 2.8% consensus—but we also expect a further robust increase in the core too.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
In one line: Strength all round, except in chip-starved autos.
It would not be fair, yet, to describe the industrial recovery as faltering, though you could be forgiven for looking at the recent path of core durable goods orders and wondering.
It's tempting to look at our first chart and think that the recovery in capex is hitting a wall.
In one line: Headline hit by Boeing; core constrained by early Easter? Trends solid.
Something remarkable is happening to auction prices for used cars, which jumped 9.1% in mid-April, according to data from Manheim, the biggest auction firm. That's not the year-over-year rate; it's the increase between March and the middle of this month.
Today brings a huge wave of macro data, most of which will be very strong, though the gains we expect to see in March retail sales and industrial production can't be sustained.
In one line: Stormed out.
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