Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

durable goodsUK

28 Sept 2021 Crunch Time Approaches as Dem Leaders Seek Deal by Thursday

  • Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
  • ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
  • The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2021 The Capex Revival Continues; Boeing will Flatter the August Numbers

  • Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
  • Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2021 Delta and Chip Shortages Likely Hit August Retail Sales

  • Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September.
  • Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low, thanks to claims delayed by Hurricane Ida.
  • It's too soon to read any signal about September pay- rolls from the Homebase data; patience required.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Aug 2021 Q3 Growth Set for 4-to-5%, but Inventories are a Wild Card

  • The unwinding of the Q2 stimulus boost and the Delta hit mean that consumption looks set to fall in Q3…
  • …But rising business capex and a potentially massive rebound in inventories will support growth.
  • Powell's defense of "transitory" and push for full employment means no taper until data are clearer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Aug 2021 The Infrastructure and Social Spending Bills will Pass, Eventually

We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.

Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.

New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 July 2021 Core Capital Goods Orders Still Rising Strongly; More to Come

Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture.

Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008 disaster.

New home sales are now almost in line with mortgage demand, but price gains are set to slow very sharply

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 June 2021 No End in Sight to the Surge in Orders for Capital Goods

A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today—we look for a 3.0% increase, close to the 2.8% consensus—but we also expect a further robust increase in the core too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 May 2021 Manufacturing is Still Recovering, but Momentum has Eased

It would not be fair, yet, to describe the industrial recovery as faltering, though you could be forgiven for looking at the recent path of core durable goods orders and wondering.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Apr 2021 Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way

It's tempting to look at our first chart and think that the recovery in capex is hitting a wall.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, March 2021

In one line: Headline hit by Boeing; core constrained by early Easter? Trends solid. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Apr 2021 Soaring Used Car and Truck Prices will Help Lift Inflation in Q2

Something remarkable is happening to auction prices for used cars, which jumped 9.1% in mid-April, according to data from Manheim, the biggest auction firm. That's not the year-over-year rate; it's the increase between March and the middle of this month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Apr 2021 Upside Risk for March Retail Sales as Stimulus Money Flows into Stores

Today brings a huge wave of macro data, most of which will be very strong, though the gains we expect to see in March retail sales and industrial production can't be sustained. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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