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Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
GDP hit by inventories, but final demand softened and will be weaker in Q3
The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...
Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.
Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.
The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease.
More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession.
Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong.
The plunge in mortgage demand points to such a rapid drop in home sales that prices could easily fall...
...The risk is that homebuilders cut prices, forcing private sellers to follow suit.
Seasonals point to higher jobless claims today, but the increase in the underlying trend is modest.
The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.
The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.
Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.
The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.
The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.
Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.
Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.
Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.
May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.
We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...
Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.
The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.
Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…
…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.
First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.
The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.
Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.
The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.
Spending is stronger than the confidence numbers suggest, because households are cash-rich.
The rundown of savings accumulated during the pandemic has barely begun; it has a long, long way to go.
Jobless claims are now at an all-time low, as a share of payroll employment; they can’t fall much further.
The BA.2 variant is now pushing up Covid cases in the Northeast, and it will spread rapidly.
...But we are increasingly confident that the economic hit will be much smaller than during the Omicron wave.
ISM services set to rebound in the wake of the recovery in mobility; employent set to jump too?
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