Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

domestic demand

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Q2 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims

GDP hit by inventories, but final demand softened and will be weaker in Q3

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2022 The June Minutes are Out of Date Already, Three Weeks is a Long Time

The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...

Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.

Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2022 The Fed Sledgehammer is Coming, but it is Unnecessary and Risky

The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease. 

More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession. 

Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 June 2022 Will Home Sales Fall so Fast that Prices Drop too

The plunge in mortgage demand points to such a rapid drop in home sales that prices could easily fall...

...The risk is that homebuilders cut prices, forcing private sellers to follow suit.

Seasonals point to higher jobless claims today, but the increase in the underlying trend is modest.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2022 Payroll Growth Appears to have Slowed, but it Remains Strong

The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.

The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.

Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 June 2022 Recent Data are Mixed, but No Sign of the Feared Rollover

The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.

The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.

Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2022 Higher Oil Prices are Bad News for Most Manufacturers, but not All

Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.

Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.

May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 May 2022 Four Reasons to Expect Core Inflation to Plunge Over the Next Year

We think markets and the Fed are too cautious on the question of how quickly core inflation will fall...

Slower wage gains, margin compression, housing weakness and the strong dollar will depress inflation.

The Fed has to keep hiking, but it can pivot to 25bp in July, and the inflation panic narrative will soon fade.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 May 2022 Another 50bp Hike Likely in June, but then Bets are Off as Inflation Falls

Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…

…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.

First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 May 2022 Manufacturing is Set to Slow, but it is an Unreliable Guide to GDP Growth

The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.

Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.

The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Apr 2022 Low and Falling Confidence is no Barrier to Strong Consumption

Spending is stronger than the confidence numbers suggest, because households are cash-rich.

The rundown of savings accumulated during the pandemic has barely begun; it has a long, long way to go.

Jobless claims are now at an all-time low, as a share of payroll employment; they can’t fall much further.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Apr 2022 BA.2 is Pushing up Covid Cases, but Expect a Limited Economic Impact

The BA.2 variant is now pushing up Covid cases in the Northeast, and it will spread rapidly.

...But we are increasingly confident that the economic hit will be much smaller than during the Omicron wave.

ISM services set to rebound in the wake of the recovery in mobility; employent set to jump too?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Mar 2022 How to Think About U.S. Recession Risk: It's all About the Process

  • Recessions are the process by which the private sec- tor unwinds financial imbalances...
  • ...Absent financial imbalances, recessions happen only after large exogenous shocks.
  • The U.S. private sector is in good financial shape, so near-term recession is unlikely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Mar 2022 Further Big Job Gains are Likely, but a Full Recovery will Remain Elusive

  • Rapid payroll growth will continue for some time yet, but a return to the pre-Covid trend is unlikely...
  • ...Participation, especially among older people, is unlikely to reverse the entire Covid-driven plunge.
  • The soft February wage data are more noise than signal, but the trend probably is no longer accelerating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Feb 2022 A Substantial Housing Slowdown is Just a Matter of Time

  • Existing home sales probably fell in January, but this it not the start of the hit from higher rates.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that manufacturing growth is slowing, and supply pressures are easing.
  • The index of leading indicators is set to surprise massively to the downside today, thanks to Omicron.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Feb 2022 No Decisions Made at the January FOMC, Opinions Appear Split

  • The FOMC is divided on the pace and timing of the coming policy tightening.
  • The huge rebound in January retail sales will lift Q1 growth forecasts, but uncertainty still rules.
  • Housing demand is softening, pushing down the leading components in the NAHB survey.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Feb 2022 Expect a Big Jump in Headline January Retail Sales; Core is Wild

  • A gratifyingly huge leap in auto sales likely will flatter today's headline January retail sales...
  • The core will be mixed, but we hope falling restaurant sales were offset by gains elsewhere.
  • A weather-driven leap in utility output likely will hide soft January manufacturing data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Feb 2022 Inflation is Approaching its Peak, but it's not Quite there Yet

  • No break yet in the run of hefty core CPI increases, but vehicle prices are about to start heading south...
  • The new high for the headline rate will increase the political/media pressure on the Fed still further...
  • ...The risk of a 50bp hike in March has increased, but we still think 25bp is more likely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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