Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

cpi report

16 May 2022 Mean-Reversion in Margins will Drive Inflation Down, Perhaps Quickly

  • The surge in inflation is largely a margin story; costs have jumped too, but margins are the bigger factor.
  • Absent structural change in markets, margins will mean-revert, pulling inflation down, but how quickly?
  • The Empire State survey looks primed for a correction after the inexplicably strong April reading.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 May 2022 The Dip in April PPI Margins is a Hint of Better Inflation News Ahead

Retail and wholesale profit margins fell in April, in a sign of better inflation news ahead.

Progress will be uneven, but the ongoing inventory rebuild should push margins down over the next year.

Jobless claims seem to have stabilized at about 200K per week; nothing to worry about.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 May 2022 Behind the Noise, Core-Core Price Increases are Moderating

The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…

…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.

Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 May 2022 CPI Base Effects Turn Favorable, but Look Out for Sequential Slowing too

Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...

...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.

The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 May 2022 Can Solid Wage Gains and Easing Wage Pressure Co-exist

Payroll growth remains solid, but has slowed from its peaks; signals for late spring and summer are mixed.

Surveys point to job gains at about 250K, but they ignore the huge post-Covid hiring backlog.

If the recent slowdown in wage growth is sustained, the Fed won’t have to keep hiking by 50bp for long.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 May 2022 It's too Soon for Chair Powell to Sound Less Hawkish

The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...

...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.

Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Apr 2022 Upside Risk--but Lots of Noise--for March Retail Sales

Mobility data signal upside risk to March core retail sales; the headline will be boosted by gas prices.

Real consumption appears to be on course for a solid 4% increase; spending on services is rebounding too. 

Core PPI inflation probably has peaked, but the downshift will be slower than for the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Apr 2022 One Better Month is not a Trend, but the March CPI Offers Real Hope

Plunging used vehicle prices explains the undershoot in the March core CPI; they have much further to fall.

Some other components rose by less than recent trends, but too soon to know if it's more than noise.

Rebounding airline fares and profit margins signal upside risk for the March core PPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Apr 2022 Will High Rent Inflation be Offset by Retail Margin Compression?

High rent inflation does not preclude a return to 2% core CPI inflation next year…

…Retail margin compression, post-Covid, could easily drive negative inflation in some key components.

Vehicle inflation likely will be below zero by late summer, but margins are vulnerable elsewhere too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Mar 2022 Everything Except ADP Points to a Soft March Payroll Report

  • We're sticking to our zero payroll forecast; Homebase and other data contradict ADP.
  • A rebound in February spending on services seems to have been offset by a drop in spending on goods. 
  • Core PCE inflation likely rose, but the February reading could be the peak; Q2 will see a clear downshift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Mar 2022 ADP Likely will Report Solid March Jobs, but Payrolls will be Weaker

  • We expect a solid ADP print today, but it will have no bearing on our forecast for the official jobs number…
  • …The Homebase data point clearly to substantial downside risk to the consensus payroll forecast.
  • Housing activity is set to weaken further as mortgage rates head towards 5%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Mar 2022 50bp is Priced-in for May, but Four Reports Could Keep the Fed at 25

  • Markets are convinced the Fed will hike by 50bp on May 4, but it's not yet a done deal…
  • Downside risks to payrolls, core CPI, GDP, and the ECI could yet persuade the Fed to tread cautiously.
  • Would the Fed hike by 50bp if the economy shrank in Q1, and March payrolls were zero?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Mar 2022 Do Rising Real Yields Signal Fading Faith in the "New Normal"

  • Real yields have risen recently by much more than breakevens; is faith in the "new normal" crumbling?
  • If productivity growth is mean-reverting to 2%-plus, real yields have much further to rise.
  • Downside risk to headline February durable goods orders, but the the core should be solid.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Mar 2022 Inventories are the Wild Card for Q1 Growth, a Big Drag is Likely

  • A big drag from inventories means we have pulled down our Q1 GDP forecast to zero…
  • …Growth likely will rebound strongly in the second quarter, because final demand looks solid.
  • Chainstore sales growth is slowing rapidly, but mostly—perhaps entirely—due to adverse base effects.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Mar 2022. The Housing Market is Starting to Roll Over; Soaring Rates are Hurting

  • Home sales have much further to fall as the surge in rates bites; payments are up 27% since September.
  • Falling sales will hit economic growth, at the margin, but rising supply will dampen price gains...
  • ...And slowing price increases eventually will feed into slowing rent inflation, but likely not until next year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Mar 2022 Homebase Data Signal Weak March Payrolls, Despite Recent Strength

  • Our interpretation of the Homebase data suggests payroll growth stalled in March…
  • …This might be nothing more than a blip, or Homebase could be wrong; but it's not what we expected.
  • Auction data show the drop in used vehicle prices is accelerating; downside risk for existing home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Mar 2022 Look for Five or Six 2022 FOMC Dots, but no Runoff Announcement Yet

  • Rates to rise by 25bp today, with five dots, at least, likely for 2022 as inflation forecasts rise...
  • Chair Powell will repeat his willingness to hike more quickly if needed, but no runoff announcement yet.
  • February's core retail sales numbers likely were were OK; headline constrained by a drop in auto sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Mar 2022 Energy is Driving Headline PPI, but the Core Rate will Soon Fall Rapidly

  • The February PPI likely was boosted by soaring energy and food prices, but the March hit will be bigger.
  • Core PPI inflation likely peaked in February; it looks set to fall sharply from the spring onwards.
  • Base effects will hugely depress year-over-year chainstore sales growth over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Mar 2022 Inflation will Start to Fall in Q2, but How Far, and How Fast

  • Headline and core inflation will peak in March; the key question now is the speed of the subsequent drop.
  • The Fed needs to see falling vehicle prices, slower wage gains and improving supply chains.
  • These are all reasonable bets, but they aren't certain in terms of both timing and extent.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Mar 2022 Headline Inflation set for a New High, but the Core Should be Less Terrible

  • Headline inflation likely hit a 40-year high in February, but the monthly core increases likely have peaked.
  • Lower used vehicle prices and airline fares probably limited the core increase in February.
  • JOLTS job openings remain close to their record high, despite rising labor participation rates.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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