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Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.
All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.
Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.
Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.
Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.
More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.
Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.
As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.
CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.
Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.
The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.
Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.
Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.
The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.
Headline retail sales in June likely flattered by higher gas prices, but we look for solid core numbers too...
Manufacturing output looks to be stalling; is the auto sector the exception as chip supply improves?
Core PPI inflation is now clearly trending downwards, but the real shift will come when margins start to fall.
Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.
Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.
The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.
Behind the headline spike, a June repeat of May’s 0.6% surge in the core CPI seems unlikely...
...Airline fares, used auto prices, hotel room rates all likely were better-behaved; rents are a wild card.
The NFIB survey is consistent with other evidence pointing to easing core-core inflation pressures.
We expect a further clear deterioration in small business owners’ sentiment...
...But the labor market is not quite as tight as last summer, and inflation pressures likely have eased.
Real-time data are still holding up, though July 4 distortions obscure the very latest picture.
Payroll growth has stabilized at about 350K, but smaller gains are coming later in the summer/fall.
Wage gains have slowed far enough to exert material downward pressure on core-core inflation.
The Fed does not need to hike by 75bp this month; the risk of a wage-price spiral is small.
The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...
Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.
Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.
Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…
…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.
The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.
Chair Powell reiterates that rates will rise until the sequential CPI slows, but that’s not far off.
Last week’s bounce in mortgage applications is a head-fake; the trend is still in free-fall.
Jobless claims likely dipped a bit last week, but the trend is still rising, albeit slowly.
A central bank promising to hike until inflation is clearly falling is effectively promising to overtighten…
…But the healthy state of the private sector’s finances mean that a recession should be averted.
The softness of May retail sales and downward revisions to April will hit Q2 GDP growth forecasts.
The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease.
More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession.
Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong.
Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.
PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.
Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.
The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…
…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.
The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.
We expect a 0.5% increase in the core CPI, led by rents, airline fares, and new vehicle prices...
...Behind this noise, though, the core-core CPI might now be slowing on a sequential basis.
The moderation in wage growth probably is reducing inflation pressure in an array of services components.
Payroll growth has slowed but is still strong, and is being accommodated by rising participation.
The moderation in wage growth looks increasingly real, and it will reduce sequential price pressures.
The next two CPI reports and June labor data are key; the Fed could yet pivot to 25bp in July.
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