U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
cpi
Improving core trend is now in place.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
- A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
- Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
- Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Disinflation underway; Fed to pause after 50bp tomorrow and 25bp on February 1.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
- Much of the sharp slowing in the October core CPI looks sustainable, including rents.
- The Fed is still most likely to hike by 50bp in December, but 25bp is possible…
- …All eyes on the November employment and CPI reports, both due before the December FOMC.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Startlingly goods core CPI; rent fever appears to be breaking
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Falling used auto prices and a reversal in health insurance prices should constrain the October core CPI.
- We expect a 0.5% core increase, with a bit of downside risk, but rent is still a threat…
- …And the disparate components of the core-core are unpredictable; they have overshot in recent months.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Job growth is slowing, on track to slip below 100K by next March, pushing up unemployment.
- Wage growth appears to be softening, though the data are not quite definitive, yet.
- If recent trends continue, and core CPI prints moder- ate, Chair Powell’s stance will have to change.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- If core inflation and wage growth slow simultaneously, the Fed’s last hike will be in December
- Don’t be deceived by low and stable initial claims; labor demand is slowing markedly.
- The latest core CPI prints are grim, but recency bias is dangerous; change is coming, for the better
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Used vehicle prices continue to fall sharply at auction; pass-through into the CPI is inevitable.
- No worries in the jobless claims data yet, but increases in the next few weeks would be disconcerting.
- Existing home sales likely were little changed in September, but don’t be deceived; this is not the floor.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The September core CPI likely was much less scary than in August, but the Fed wants a run of good data.
- Wildcards for September are vehicle prices, airline fares, and the components which spiked in August…
- …The range of plausible numbers is wide; it’s impossible to make monthly forecasts with confidence.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The steady rundown in pandemic savings this year suggests people want to keep spending...
- ...Almost 90% of cumulative Covid savings remain, so they could easily support 2023 consumption.
- The spread between core PCE and core CPI inflation is set to widen, in the right direction for the Fed.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
- Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
- Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
- Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
- A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
- ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
- Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.
- Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
- Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- CPI rent inflation has exploded, but the monthly run-rate likely has peaked.
- Landlords' rent expectations have moderated; tenants' ability to pay is more limited.
- Chair Powell will stick to the script today, again.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
