Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

cpi

14 Nov 2022 US Monitor Better CPI News Looks Sustainable; a 25bp Hike is Possible in December

  • Much of the sharp slowing in the October core CPI looks sustainable, including rents.
  • The Fed is still most likely to hike by 50bp in December, but 25bp is possible…
  • …All eyes on the November employment and CPI reports, both due before the December FOMC. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Nov 2022 US Monitor A Third Straight Core CPI Blowout is Unlikely, but not Impossible

  • Falling used auto prices and a reversal in health insurance prices should constrain the October core CPI.
  • We expect a 0.5% core increase, with a bit of downside risk, but rent is still a threat…
  • …And the disparate components of the core-core are unpredictable; they have overshot in recent months. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Labor Market is Softening, Further Fed Hikes are Dangerous

  • Job growth is slowing, on track to slip below 100K by next March, pushing up unemployment.
  • Wage growth appears to be softening, though the data are not quite definitive, yet.
  • If recent trends continue, and core CPI prints moder- ate, Chair Powell’s stance will have to change.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Oct 2022 US Monitor How the Fed Could be Done After the December Rate Hike

  • If core inflation and wage growth slow simultaneously, the Fed’s last hike will be in December
  • Don’t be deceived by low and stable initial claims; labor demand is slowing markedly.
  • The latest core CPI prints are grim, but recency bias is dangerous; change is coming, for the better

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Oct 2022 US Monitor Used Car Prices Falling Fast; Dealer Margins are Set to Drop, a Long Way

  • Used vehicle prices continue to fall sharply at auction; pass-through into the CPI is inevitable.
  • No worries in the jobless claims data yet, but increases in the next few weeks would be disconcerting.
  • Existing home sales likely were little changed in September, but don’t be deceived; this is not the floor.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2022 US Monitor No Repeat of August's Core CPI Spike?

  • The September core CPI likely was much less scary than in August, but the Fed wants a run of good data.
  • Wildcards for September are vehicle prices, airline fares, and the components which spiked in August…
  • …The range of plausible numbers is wide; it’s impossible to make monthly forecasts with confidence.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Sept 2022 US Monitor Savings Rundown Suggests People Want to Keep Spending

  • The steady rundown in pandemic savings this year suggests people want to keep spending...
  • ...Almost 90% of cumulative Covid savings remain, so they could easily support 2023 consumption.
  • The spread between core PCE and core CPI inflation is set to widen, in the right direction for the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risks for August Housing Starts, but don't be Deceived

  • Housing construction is trending rapidly downwards, but starts likely were steady in August...temporarily.
  • Inflation expectations are tracking the decline in food and energy inflation; that’s what matters for the Fed.
  • Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of September; the data will hit the CPI very soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2022 US Monitor August's Core CPI Mean 75bp is Done, but the Big Picture is Improving

  • The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
  • ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
  • Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2022 US Monitor Another Moderate Core CPI Print is a Good Bet, but not a Certainty

  • Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.  
  • Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
  • Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2022 US Monitor Monthly CPI rent increases likely have peaked

  • CPI rent inflation has exploded, but the monthly run-rate likely has peaked.
  • Landlords' rent expectations have moderated; tenants' ability to pay is more limited.
  • Chair Powell will stick to the script today, again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Aug 2022 US Monitor No Shift in Stance from Powell, but 50bp is Still Possible Next Month

 The August inflation data will have to be great if the Fed is to pivot to 50bp in September...

...Whatever happens to rates in the near-term, the Fed is uneasy at market forecasts of lower rates in 2023.

The plunging trade deficit and stronger consumption mean Q3 GDP forecasts are much too low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Aug 2022 US Monitor Business Surveys Now Point--Just-- to Outright Falls in Margins

Key regional surveys now show that supply conditions have improved enough to push down margins.

The upturn in jobless claims since the spring is overstated by seasonal problems; the labor market is fine.

Capital goods orders are rising at a decent, steady pace, but inflation is offsetting the gains, for now.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2022 US Monitor Powell To Hint at a 50bp Sep Hike?

Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.

Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances. 

Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Aug 2022 US Monitor What will the Coming Rollover in Vehicle Price do to Core Inflation?

Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of Au- gust, as inventory exceeded its 2019 level...

Prices will fall much further as production rebounds, driving down dealers’ margins, and core inflation.

The hotel recovery has lost steam since gas prices soared, but fall and holiday travel likely will be busy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Aug 2022 US Monitor Q3 Consumption Started Strongly, Thanks to the Plunge in Gas Prices

 Strong core retail sales numbers for July and upward revisions to Q2 show the consumer is unbowed...

...Consumption looks set for a decent Q2 gain as people spend some of the gas price windfall.

The housing market meltdown continues; expect to see falling sales and prices in today’s July data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Aug 2022 US Monitor Wage Growth is too Fast, but Another 75bp Hike is Unnecessary

Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.

All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.

Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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