Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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core pceUK

17 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales Signal Resilience in the Face of Delta

  • Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns.
  • States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively low immunity, but the national wave is breaking.
  • The risk of a serious further wave is fading as total immunity approaches Delta-suppressing levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

  • Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
  • …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
  • The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.

Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.

The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Sept 2021 Core PPI Inflation is Still Rising, but Monthly Gains Look Set to Slow

  • Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow.
  • Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in autos; this can't last forever.
  • The drop in jobless claims reported yesterday is noise, not signal, and it says nothing about payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2021 Job-Switching has Soared, the Wage Premium for Switching has not

  • The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
  • ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
  • Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Aug 2021 More of the Same from Chair Powell Today, Waiting for Fall Labor Data

  • Chair Powell can't signal a tapering start date today because the Fed first needs to see fall labor data.
  • Expect the usual themes instead; inflation will be "transitory", insufficient progress to taper, and Delta risk.
  • Upside risk for both consumers' spending and the core PCE deflator in today's July data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2021 Is the Delta Wave Pushing up Mortgage Demand

  • Mortgage demand appears to be rebounding strongly, despite only a very modest dip in rates...
  • ...Has the Covid surge triggered another—albeit smaller—flight to the suburbs?
  • Jobless claims likely unchanged this week, but the trend is downwards, despite Delta.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2021 The Hawks Want to Taper Very Soon, they will be Disappointed

  • FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
  • The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
  • Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Aug 2021 Third Quarter GDP Growth is Coming Under Delta Pressure

  • Thailand's economy defied gravity in Q2, but trade is unlikely to provide much of a boost—if any—in Q3.
  • The Delta squeeze on consumption will persist, but a collapse is unlikely and capex should stay afloat.
  • Don't read too much into the jump in remittances in the Philippines in June; the trend remains weak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2021 July's Retail Sales Likely Escaped the Delta Hit, August is at Risk

July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...

...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.

Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Aug 2021 While we were Out... the Macro Data Improved, but Delta Raged

The reopening spike in the core CPI has peaked, though food prices will keep rising strongly for a while.

The Delta variant continues to drive up Covid cases, but the rate of increase is slowing steadily.

People have responded to the surge by travelling less; airlines, restaurants, hotels all feeling the pain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 July 2021 Core Capital Goods Orders Still Rising Strongly; More to Come

Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture.

Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008 disaster.

New home sales are now almost in line with mortgage demand, but price gains are set to slow very sharply

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2021 Core CPI Inflation to Settle Above Core PCE as Rents Accelerate

For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI, rose faster than broad inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 July 2021 Faster Job Gains will Support Strong Consumption in H2; Margins to Rise?

The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to maintain—at least—their spending on goods, even as spending on reopening services surges.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 July 2021 Are Supply-Chain Pressures Starting to Ease, at the Margin

What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2021 Covid CPI Chaos Persists;,Expect Mr. Powell to Stick to

Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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