Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core cpi inflation

28 July 2021 Expect a Light Touch from the Fed Today, and Some Delta Nerves

Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

27 July 2021 Core Capital Goods Orders Still Rising Strongly; More to Come

Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture. Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

22 July 2021 Core CPI Inflation to Settle Above Core PCE as Rents Accelerate

For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

21 July 2021 WSJ Editorial Board Article Raises Blood Pressure; Best Avoided

The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

19 July 2021 Faster Job Gains will Support Strong Consumption in H2; Margins to Rise?

The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

16 July 2021 Are Supply-Chain Pressures Starting to Ease, at the Margin

What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

14 July 2021 Covid CPI Chaos Persists;,Expect Mr. Powell to Stick to

Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

13 July 2021 Expect Another Jump in the Core CPI, but the Peak Likely has Passed

We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

12 July 2021 Is the Treasury Market Really Sigalling Slower Growth?

We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

9 July 2021 Auto Sales are Falling and Prices are Rising, Supply is the Problem

The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

7 July 2021 Quits are Soaring as Power Shifts to Employees, Perhaps Temporarily

We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

2 July 2021 Upside Risk for June Payrolls, Home base Data Point to 1M Private Jobs

Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

1 July 2021 The Best Way to Read ADP Might be Just to Ignore it

We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

US 25 June 2021 Savings Behavior Matters Hugely for the Recovery, but it's Unpredictable

Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

24 June 2021 No End in Sight to the Surge in Orders for Capital Goods

A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today--we look for a 3.0% increase, close...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

23 June 2021 Producer Restraint has Allowed Oil Prices to Surge, it Likely won't Last

Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground? 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

22 June 2021 Delta is Taking Over, Low Vaccination States are Vulnerable

The Covid picture nationally continues to improve, with the seven-day average number of cases now at just 11.1K, down 24% from a week ago and 62% from a month ago. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

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