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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...
28th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture. Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008...
27th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.
A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.
23rd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...
22nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
21st Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...
19th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
16th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...
15th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
14th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
13th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.
We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in...
12th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.
The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report.
9th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
8th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
7th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
2nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.
1st Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
25th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.
A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today--we look for a 3.0% increase, close...
24th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.
Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground?
23rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.
The Covid picture nationally continues to improve, with the seven-day average number of cases now at just 11.1K, down 24% from a week ago and 62% from a month ago.
22nd Jun 2021 00:30U.S.
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