Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

core PPI

30 Sept 2022 US Monitor Savings Rundown Suggests People Want to Keep Spending

  • The steady rundown in pandemic savings this year suggests people want to keep spending...
  • ...Almost 90% of cumulative Covid savings remain, so they could easily support 2023 consumption.
  • The spread between core PCE and core CPI inflation is set to widen, in the right direction for the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Sept 2022 US Monitor Why is the Fed so Determined that the Labor Market Must Weaken

  • Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
  • ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
  • But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Sept 2022 US Monitor No Let-up in the Fed's Hawkishness, but Opinions are Split

  • Aggressive rate hikes will continue until inflation improves; 75bp in November, but 25bp in December?
  • Fed opinion is split, even in the near-term, and the inflation data over the next few months will be better.
  • The Homebase data suggest a preliminary 325K forecast for September payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2022 US Monitor Expect 75bp Today, and a Forecast of a Further 100bp by Year-end

  • The Fed likely will hike by 75bp today, and will forecast a further 100bp by the end of the year...
  • ...They will forecast slower growth, higher unemployment, and lower inflation for next year
  • Existing home sales likely dipped only slightly in August, but further hefty declines are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2022 US Monitor August's Core CPI Mean 75bp is Done, but the Big Picture is Improving

  • The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
  • ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
  • Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2022 US Monitor Another Moderate Core CPI Print is a Good Bet, but not a Certainty

  • Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.  
  • Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
  • Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2022 US Monitor Vice Chair Brainard Says Lower Margins will Reduce Inflation; Agreed

  • The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
  • Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
  • Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2022 US Monitor Monthly CPI rent increases likely have peaked

  • CPI rent inflation has exploded, but the monthly run-rate likely has peaked.
  • Landlords' rent expectations have moderated; tenants' ability to pay is more limited.
  • Chair Powell will stick to the script today, again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2022 US Monitor Consumers' Spending is Responding to the Plunge in Gasoline Prices

  • Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
  • The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
  • The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Aug 2022 US Monitor No Shift in Stance from Powell, but 50bp is Still Possible Next Month

 The August inflation data will have to be great if the Fed is to pivot to 50bp in September...

...Whatever happens to rates in the near-term, the Fed is uneasy at market forecasts of lower rates in 2023.

The plunging trade deficit and stronger consumption mean Q3 GDP forecasts are much too low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Aug 2022 US Monitor Business Surveys Now Point--Just-- to Outright Falls in Margins

Key regional surveys now show that supply conditions have improved enough to push down margins.

The upturn in jobless claims since the spring is overstated by seasonal problems; the labor market is fine.

Capital goods orders are rising at a decent, steady pace, but inflation is offsetting the gains, for now.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2022 US Monitor Powell To Hint at a 50bp Sep Hike?

Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.

Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances. 

Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Aug 2022 US Monitor What will the Coming Rollover in Vehicle Price do to Core Inflation?

Used vehicle prices fell sharply in the first half of Au- gust, as inventory exceeded its 2019 level...

Prices will fall much further as production rebounds, driving down dealers’ margins, and core inflation.

The hotel recovery has lost steam since gas prices soared, but fall and holiday travel likely will be busy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Aug 2022 US Monitor Q3 Consumption Started Strongly, Thanks to the Plunge in Gas Prices

 Strong core retail sales numbers for July and upward revisions to Q2 show the consumer is unbowed...

...Consumption looks set for a decent Q2 gain as people spend some of the gas price windfall.

The housing market meltdown continues; expect to see falling sales and prices in today’s July data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Aug 2022 US Monitor Current Labor Costs Growth is Scary, but it won't be Sustained

The current pace of unit labor costs growth, if sustained, is incompatible with the inflation target…

…But wage growth will slow next year, and productivity growth will rebound. 

More immediately, disinflation over the next year will be driven by margin re-compression.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Aug 2022 US Monitor Wage Growth is too Fast, but Another 75bp Hike is Unnecessary

Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.

All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.

Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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