Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

consumption

15 Apr 2021 Upside Risk for March Retail Sales as Stimulus Money Flows into Stores

Upside Risk for March Retail Sales as Stimulus Money Flows into Stores

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Apr 2021 00:20U.S.

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Feb 2021 13:32U.S.

22 Feb 2021 Higher Spending on Services After Covid won't hurt Spending on Goods

Higher Spending on Services After Covid won't hurt Spending on Goods

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Feb 2021 00:30U.S.

12 Jan 2021 Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation

Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Jan 2021 00:20U.S.

24 Dec 2020 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Stories in the Latest Data

This is the final U.S. Monitor for 2020, a year we'll be thrilled to leave behind.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

30 Nov 2020 The Services Sector is Weakening, can Spending on Goods Save Q4?

You've probably read several media stories by now reporting that retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend was up, down, or unchanged from a year ago, based on credit card...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Oct 2020 01:50U.S.

19 Oct 2020 The Big Threat to Q4 Consumption is Covid, not Consumers' Cashflow

The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

24 Sept 2020 With Fiscal Relief Hopes Fading Q4 GDP Growth is Set to Slow Sharply

Our working assumption now is that Congress will not pass a substantial Covid relief bill until next year, probably in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.

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