Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a full list of our U.S. Publications.

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consumption

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Feb 2021 08:32U.S.

22 Feb 2021 Higher Spending on Services After Covid won't hurt Spending on Goods

Higher Spending on Services After Covid won't hurt Spending on Goods

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Feb 2021 19:30U.S.

12 Jan 2021 Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation

Watch Small Firms' Selling Prices for Clues to Post-Covid Inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

24 Dec 2020 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Stories in the Latest Data

This is the final U.S. Monitor for 2020, a year we'll be thrilled to leave behind.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

30 Nov 2020 The Services Sector is Weakening, can Spending on Goods Save Q4?

You've probably read several media stories by now reporting that retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend was up, down, or unchanged from a year ago, based on credit card...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

25 Nov 2020 Yellen will be an Excellent Treasury Secretary, but the Role is Limited

The impending appointment of ex-Fed Chair Yellen as Treasury Secretary is to be welcomed--a safer pair of hands is hard to imagine--but it does not change our view that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Oct 2020 21:50U.S.

19 Oct 2020 The Big Threat to Q4 Consumption is Covid, not Consumers' Cashflow

The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Oct 2020 20:20U.S.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Oct 2020 20:20U.S.

24 Sept 2020 With Fiscal Relief Hopes Fading Q4 GDP Growth is Set to Slow Sharply

Our working assumption now is that Congress will not pass a substantial Covid relief bill until next year, probably in February.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Sep 2020 20:10U.S.

31 Aug 2020 Q3 Consumption will Rocket, but Benefit Expiration Hit is Uncertain

We have revised up our third quarter GDP forecast to 25% from 15%, in the wake of last week's data. Consumers' spending is on course to rise by 36.6% if July's level...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.

26 Aug 2020 Capex is Rising, but it Won't Recover its Losses in the Foreseeable Future

After two hefty month-to-month increases, durable goods orders ex-transportation now stand only 3.9% below their January pre-Covid peak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Aug 2020 18:10U.S.

7 Aug 2020 A Modest Rise in Payrolls Look Likely, but Big Risks in Both Directions

The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.

6 Aug 2020 ADP Signals Only a Modest Rise in July Payrolls, August will be Weaker

Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Aug 2020 20:10U.S.

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