Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Emerging Asia Economic Monitor consumer Fed

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

  • Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
  • …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
  • The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2021 Faster Productivity Growth Would Fix Almost Everything; Odds are Good

  • The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
  • ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
  • Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.

Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.

The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2021 Job-Switching has Soared, the Wage Premium for Switching has not

  • The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
  • ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
  • Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2021 Delta Hit August Jobs Hard, and the Rebound will Take Time

  • Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
  • The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
  • Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Sept 2021 Payroll Gains Likely Losing Momentum, Thanks to Delta

  • A 400K payroll print today would confirm other evidence pointing to a clear Delta hit to growth.
  • September payrolls likely will be depressed too; that's the last report before the November FOMC meeting.
  • Delta damage to discretionary consumers' spending signals downside risk for ISM services today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Aug 2021 Q3 Growth Set for 4-to-5%, but Inventories are a Wild Card

  • The unwinding of the Q2 stimulus boost and the Delta hit mean that consumption looks set to fall in Q3…
  • …But rising business capex and a potentially massive rebound in inventories will support growth.
  • Powell's defense of "transitory" and push for full employment means no taper until data are clearer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Aug 2021 More of the Same from Chair Powell Today, Waiting for Fall Labor Data

  • Chair Powell can't signal a tapering start date today because the Fed first needs to see fall labor data.
  • Expect the usual themes instead; inflation will be "transitory", insufficient progress to taper, and Delta risk.
  • Upside risk for both consumers' spending and the core PCE deflator in today's July data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Aug 2021 The Infrastructure and Social Spending Bills will Pass, Eventually

We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.

Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.

New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Aug 2021 Falling Layoffs are Welcome, but they don't Guarantee Faster Job Gains

  • The decline in jobless claims tells us gross layoffs are falling, but it says nothing about the pace of hiring.
  • Firms hit by the Delta wave are more likely to cut back recruitment first, before laying off staff.
  • The Philly Fed suggests that supply-chain shortages are no longer intensifying.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2021 The Hawks Want to Taper Very Soon, they will be Disappointed

  • FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
  • The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
  • Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2021 July's Retail Sales Likely Escaped the Delta Hit, August is at Risk

July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...

...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.

Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Aug 2021 While we were Out... the Macro Data Improved, but Delta Raged

The reopening spike in the core CPI has peaked, though food prices will keep rising strongly for a while.

The Delta variant continues to drive up Covid cases, but the rate of increase is slowing steadily.

People have responded to the surge by travelling less; airlines, restaurants, hotels all feeling the pain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 July 2021 Brace for Another Outsized Jump in Employment Costs

Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…

…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.

Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2021 Progress Made, but not "Sufficient Further Progress", Yet

Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.

The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.

Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 July 2021 Expect a Light Touch from the Fed Today, and Some Delta Nerves

Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta.

Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to suppress the spread of Delta.

Home price gains are set to slow sharply, but rents are likely to accelerate in the second half.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 July 2021 WSJ Editorial Board Article Raises Blood Pressure; Best Avoided

The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 July 2021 No Signs in Homebase Data of Accelerating Payrolls in July

The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period—that is, the week, two weeks, or month—which included Monday, July 12, counts as employed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 July 2021 Are Supply-Chain Pressures Starting to Ease, at the Margin

What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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