Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
- ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
- Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.
- Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on manufacturing production, but by much less than in Europe.
- Sustained high oil and gas prices will spur business capex as firms seek to reduce energy intensity.
- Hurricane Ida and the downshift in new home sales signal downside risk for September housing starts.
- The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
- Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
- The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.
- Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
- The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
- Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
- The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
- ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
- Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.