PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, March

No siign of a meaningful hit to sentiment from bank failures, yet.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment, March

Sentiment dragged lower by banking chaos; inflation expectations continue to fall.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, February

Not good enough to stop the Fed hiking next week, provided markets are calm

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence/Chicago PMI, February

Consumer confidence points to softer consumption growth; we're lowering our foreacst for ISM manufacturing.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, January

Core services prices still sticky; no one's mind will be changed by this report

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. UoM Consumer Sentiment, February

Consumers unfazed by uptick in gas prices

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence/Chicago PMI

Consumer confidence likely will dip again in February; no respite for manufacturing, but it's coming.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, January

People like cheaper gasoline.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, December

People like cheaper gas and rebounding stock prices

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment, December

Consumers' confidence is improving, but consumption growth still set to slow in Q1.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, November

Don't worry about the dip in confidence; consumption still on track for a strong fourth quarter.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

17 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Consumer Refuses to Stick to the Rollover Script; 3%+ in Q4

• Strong retail sales suggest the consumer will drive fourth quarter GDP growth...
• ...Even as the non-auto manufacturing sector sinks into a mild recession.
• Housing construction is falling fast, but it still has a long way to go, even if demand bottoms soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, October

Fall in present conditions index consistent with a weaker labor market

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment, October

The uptick in sentiment and inflation expectations likely will not be sustained

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, August/Consumer Confidence, September

Don’t believe the home sales jump; confidence recovering

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment, September

Lower gas prices boost confidence and depress inflation expectations

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

• Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
• Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
• Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, August

No chance now of a 50bp next week, but this is a setback not a reversal

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, August 2022

Falling gas prices cheer consumers, and push down inflation expectations

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.