Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

chinese manufacturing

19 Jan 2022 Soaring Oil Prices will Lift Headline Inflation, and Slow the Core Decline

  • December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
  • Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
  • The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Jan 2022 Mixed December Data Today Distorted by Omicron and Weather

  • The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
  • Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
  • Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Jan 2022 Homebase Points to a December Jobs Jump; ADP Likely Less Dramatic

  • The Homebase small business jobs data point to December payrolls rising by 1M-plus...
  • ADP's numbers today likely will be far short of this pace, but we see upside risk to the consensus.
  • Supply chain pressures continue to ease; expect the key ISM readings to be at normal levels by the spring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Jan 2022 While we were Out... Omicron Cases Rocketed, but not for Much Longer

  • Covid cases still rocketing, but they likely will peak over the next couple weeks.
  • The economic hit will be smaller and briefer than during the Delta wave, but it will be visible nonetheless.
  • The December ISM survey likely will show that supply-chain pressures are easing, gradually

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Dec 2021 The Omicron Wave will Hit Activity Hard, but not for Long; we Hope

The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.

We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.

The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Dec 2021 ADP Forces a Payroll Forecast Cut, but Margins of Error are Wide

  • We now look for a 550K headline payroll print tomor- row, in the wake of the disappointing ADP report.
  • The ISM manufacturing survey confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing, albeit slowly.
  • Jobless claims likely rebounded strongly in Thanks- giving week as a huge seasonal quirk reversed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, November

  • In one line: Orders growth has slowed; supply-chain pressures easing.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Nov 2021 Omicron is Coming to the U.S., but Worst-Case Scenario Looks Unlikely

  •  The Omicron variant will soon reach the U.S., but its takeover will be slower than Delta's…
  • …Assuming decent protection from vaccination and/or prior infection; that's not yet clear.
  • If Omicron spreads quickly but causes less severe disease, it will not trigger a stall in the recovery

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Nov 2021 The Surge in Used Vehicle Auto Prices is Starting to Slow

  • Used vehicle auction prices are still rising, but the rate of increase has slowed; is the worst over?
  • A year from now, and possibly much sooner, we ex- pect car prices to be in free-fall.
  • Surging Philly Fed and Empire State surveys suggest that the strong manufacturing rebound continues.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Nov 2021 Surging Retail Sales Signal a Solid Start to Fourth Quarter Spending

  • Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
  • ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
  • Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Nov 2021 Homebase Jobs Look Soft for November, Official Data Likely Better

  • The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
  • ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
  • October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Nov 2021 Covid Cases have Flattened, but the Decline Likely will soon Resume

  • The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
  • Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
  • New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2021 Core Capex Orders Soar, but Look Out for a September Pause

  • Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
  • Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
  • New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Oct 2021 Layoffs are Set to Hit New Lows as the Economy Rebounds After Delta

  • The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
  • As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
  • Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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