Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- The Omicron variant will soon reach the U.S., but its takeover will be slower than Delta's…
- …Assuming decent protection from vaccination and/or prior infection; that's not yet clear.
- If Omicron spreads quickly but causes less severe disease, it will not trigger a stall in the recovery
- The supply chain nightmare is a consequence of a sudden change in initial conditions...
- ...In some systems, such changes trigger chaos; the outcomes appear wild, or random, but they aren't.
- Eventually, the system will respond; initial conditions will mean-revert; and supply chain chaos will end.
- Unit labor costs are key to the U.S. inflation story, but global factors matter too...
- ...If China is no longer a source of disinflation pressure, the Fed will have less room for labor cost maneuver.
- Ignore the decline in September housing construc- tion; it's much more noise than signal.
- China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
- Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
- The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.
- Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
- …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
- The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex
- Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow.
- Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in autos; this can't last forever.
- The drop in jobless claims reported yesterday is noise, not signal, and it says nothing about payrolls.
- Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
- The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
- Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September
- The U.S. and China have reached peak economic integration; the next big move is the other way...
- ...But this is a longer term trend story; for now, U.S. and Chinese manufacturing are still closely linked.
- Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.
Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.