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Manufacturing is Still on Track, Even if the December ISM Fell
24th Dec 2020 07:36U.S.
The industrial economy continues to recover, buoyed by a combination of strong domestic demand for goods, both consumer and capital, including anything housing-related, and the...
14th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.
While we wait to see the extent to which Thanksgiving travel and family gatherings interrupted the emerging downshift in U.S. Covid cases, this week brings a ton of new data on...
30th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.
In one line: Don't get carried away by the three-year high.
30th Nov 2020 06:28U.S.
It's tempting to think, in the wake of yesterday's strong October housing starts numbers and the dip in mortgage rates to record lows, that the market will continue to...
18th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.
Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...
25th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.
First, apologies for a much more dense report than usual; there's a lot of ground to cover here. The most likely outcome of the November 3 election right now is a Democrat...
27th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.
We remain bullish on the near-term outlook for the housing market, but momentum in the mortgage applications numbers has faded a bit in recent weeks.
21st Sep 2020 20:20U.S.
We're hearing a lot about permanent changes to the economy in the wake of Covid-19, but that might not be the right description. Not much is permanent, and assuming permanence...
3rd May 2020 20:20U.S.
The drop in jobless claims to 3,839K in the week ended April 25, from 4,442K in the previous week, leaves the data still terrible, but markedly less terrible than at the 6,867K...
30th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.
The absence of an internationally agreed set of guidelines for easing lockdowns means that such decisions ultimately are political in nature.
16th Apr 2020 20:10U.S.
Last week's unprecedented surge in initial jobless claims, to 3,283K from 282K, prompted a New York Times front page for the ages; if you haven't seen it, click here.
1st Apr 2020 20:10U.S.
The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual...
22nd Mar 2020 20:20U.S.
The Fed's announcement, at 11.30pm Wednesday, that it will establish a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility--MMLF--to support prime money market funds, is...
19th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.
The House passage of a stimulus bill last Friday, seeking to ameliorate some of the damage done by the coronavirus outbreak, will not be nearly enough.
15th Mar 2020 20:30U.S.
The NY Fed's announcement yesterday restarts QE. The $60B of bill purchases previously planned for the period from March 13 through April 13 will now consist of $60B purchases...
12th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.
It's just not possible to forecast the reaction of businesses and consumers to the coronavirus outbreak.
10th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.
The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.
9th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.
A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other...
8th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.
We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.
5th Mar 2020 19:20U.S.
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