Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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15 Dec 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but not in a Straight Line

The industrial economy continues to recover, buoyed by a combination of strong domestic demand for goods, both consumer and capital, including anything housing-related, and the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

1 Dec 2020 Help is Needed for the Unemployed, but the Employed Drive Growth

While we wait to see the extent to which Thanksgiving travel and family gatherings interrupted the emerging downshift in U.S. Covid cases, this week brings a ton of new data on...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

US Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, China, November 2020

In one line: Don't get carried away by the three-year high.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 06:28U.S.

19 Nov 2020 More Evidence Signals a Slowing Housing Rebound, but no Relapse

It's tempting to think, in the wake of yesterday's strong October housing starts numbers and the dip in mortgage rates to record lows, that the market will continue to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

28 Sept 2020 36 Days to Go, Who will Win, and What will they Do?

First, apologies for a much more dense report than usual; there's a lot of ground to cover here. The most likely outcome of the November 3 election right now is a Democrat...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.

22 Sept 2020 Interest in the Housing Market is Peaking, but a Rout is Unlikely

We remain bullish on the near-term outlook for the housing market, but momentum in the mortgage applications numbers has faded a bit in recent weeks.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Sep 2020 20:20U.S.

4 May 2020 Permanent Change is Rare, but Some Covid Effects will Last Many Years

We're hearing a lot about permanent changes to the economy in the wake of Covid-19, but that might not be the right description. Not much is permanent, and assuming permanence...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd May 2020 20:20U.S.

1 May 2020 Job Losses are Slowing, but Remain Hugely Elevated

The drop in jobless claims to 3,839K in the week ended April 25, from 4,442K in the previous week, leaves the data still terrible, but markedly less terrible than at the 6,867K...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.

17 Apr 2020 U.S. Case Growth Slowing to Rates Where First Euro Lockdowns Eased

The absence of an internationally agreed set of guidelines for easing lockdowns means that such decisions ultimately are political in nature.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Apr 2020 20:10U.S.

2 Apr 2020 Jobless Claims Likely to Hit Another New High, but they'll Fall Next Week

Last week's unprecedented surge in initial jobless claims, to 3,283K from 282K, prompted a New York Times front page for the ages; if you haven't seen it, click here.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Apr 2020 20:10U.S.

23 Mar 2020 The Growth of European Covid-19 Cases Slowed Sharply Yesterday

The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

20 Mar 2020 The Fed is Now Intervening Across the Board, Almost, Good

The Fed's announcement, at 11.30pm Wednesday, that it will establish a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility--MMLF--to support prime money market funds, is...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

16 Mar 2020 The House Bill is Nothing Like Enough, Much More is Coming

The House passage of a stimulus bill last Friday, seeking to ameliorate some of the damage done by the coronavirus outbreak, will not be nearly enough.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Mar 2020 20:30U.S.

13 Mar 2020 QE4 Underway, Expect the Fed to Extend it Next Week

The NY Fed's announcement yesterday restarts QE. The $60B of bill purchases previously planned for the period from March 13 through April 13 will now consist of $60B purchases...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

11 Mar 2020 If Discretionary Spending Tracks the 9,11 and 2008 Paths, Look Out

It's just not possible to forecast the reaction of businesses and consumers to the coronavirus outbreak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

10 Mar 2020 Oil Sector Capex is Set to Collapse, Outweighing Consumers' Gain

The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

9 Mar 2020 Global Virus Cases Accelerating, but China and Korea Show it's Beatable

A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

6 Mar 2020 Job Gains Likely Slowed Last Month, but the Covid-19 Hit is Still to Come

We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Mar 2020 19:20U.S.

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