Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Delta is boosting sales of goods; what’s happening to services?
- Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
- …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
- Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.
- September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
- Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
- Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.
- Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
- ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
- Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?
- Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
- ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
- The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.
- The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
- Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
- New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.
- China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
- Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
- The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.
- The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
- Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
- The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.
- In one line: The housing re-rebound is well underway.
- We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
- Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
- Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.
- Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
- The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
- Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?
- In one line: The renewed uptick continues; but a return to the Covid peaks is unlikely.
- The huge range of FOMC rate forecasts for 2023 and 2024 likely reflects widely differing labor market views.
- Both extremes seem unlikely to us, but it will be some time before the range of forecasts narrows.
- New home sales recently have been a bit stronger than mortgage data imply; upside August risk?
- In one line: Off the peaks, but stable in recent months.
- The FOMC and Chair Powell appear prepared to signal that tapering will start in December.
- Expect more dots for a 2022 rate hike, but the median forecast likely will still be for the first move in 2023.
- Existing home sales are falling slowly, while inventory is rising; price gains are slowing.
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.
We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.
Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.
- Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns.
- States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively low immunity, but the national wave is breaking.
- The risk of a serious further wave is fading as total immunity approaches Delta-suppressing levels.
- In one line: Delta? What Delta?
- Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September.
- Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low, thanks to claims delayed by Hurricane Ida.
- It's too soon to read any signal about September pay- rolls from the Homebase data; patience required.