Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Job growth has strengthened from the summer lows, but seems not yet to be back to the pre-Delta pace.
- Participation is the key variable for the Fed; it has to rise, soon, in order to constrain wage gains.
- Hourly earnings growth in November likely was limit- ed by a calendar quirk; expect stronger in December.
- Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
- Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
- October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.
- Chair Powell's re-appointment and the impending new board appointments will keep the Fed dovish...
- ...But an immediate acceleration of the tapering pace in December can't be ruled out.
- Home prices continue to rocket as rising sales leave no room for inventory to recover.
- Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
- ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
- Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.
- If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
- Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
- These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.
- Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
- The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
- Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.
- The Delta Covid wave has depressed consumers' confidence, but not for much longer.
- In any event, the key driver of spending next year will be cashflow and the rundown of accumulated savings
- New home sales likely rose again in September, as the re-rebound continues, but the Ida hit is uncertain.
- Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
- ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
- Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?
- Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
- ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
- The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.
- The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
- Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
- New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.
- Shutdown averted, but action on the debt ceiling, infrastructure and social spending will take a while.
- Households are still adding to their huge pile of sav- ings; post-pandemic firepower is enormous.
- Homebase data signal a solid increase in payrolls; the St. Louis Fed model tracks only household jobs.
- China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
- Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
- The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.
- We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
- Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
- Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.
- The huge range of FOMC rate forecasts for 2023 and 2024 likely reflects widely differing labor market views.
- Both extremes seem unlikely to us, but it will be some time before the range of forecasts narrows.
- New home sales recently have been a bit stronger than mortgage data imply; upside August risk?
- The FOMC and Chair Powell appear prepared to signal that tapering will start in December.
- Expect more dots for a 2022 rate hike, but the median forecast likely will still be for the first move in 2023.
- Existing home sales are falling slowly, while inventory is rising; price gains are slowing.
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
- The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
- ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
- Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.
We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in oil prices will materially slow the rate of U.S. economic growth.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
The April retail sales and industrial production numbers today are wild cards, with the former especially hard to predict after the stimulus-fuelled surge in spending in March.