Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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27 July 2021 Core Capital Goods Orders Still Rising Strongly; More to Come

Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture. Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

13 July 2021 Expect Another Jump in the Core CPI, but the Peak Likely has Passed

We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

28 June 2021 Q2 Growth won't Hit Our Initial Hopes, but the Recovery is Strong

The 12% GDP growth we had hoped to see in the second quarter now looks unlikely; we've cut our estimate to an annualized rate of 9 1/2%

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

24 June 2021 No End in Sight to the Surge in Orders for Capital Goods

A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today--we look for a 3.0% increase, close...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

28 May 2021 Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th May 2021 00:20U.S.

26 May 2021 Markets and the Fed will React Differently if May Payrolls Rebound

Markets and the Fed will React Differently if May Payrolls Rebound

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th May 2021 00:20U.S.

27 Apr 2021 Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way

Core Capital Goods Orders aren't Softening, it Just Looks that Way

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.

21 Apr 2021 A Capital Stock Rebuild and Rising R-star is Still a Good Post-Covid Bet

A Capital Stock Rebuild and Rising R-star is Still a Good Post-Covid Bet

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Apr 2021 00:20U.S.

13 Apr 2021 Core CPI Set To Rebound as the Services Sector Comes Back to Life

Core CPI Set To Rebound as the Services Sector Comes Back to Life

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 22:20U.S.

8 Dec 2020 Small Business Sentiment Set to Drop, but Details are More Important

Small business owners--at least, those who are members of the NFIB and respond to its monthly survey--were delighted by the election of President Trump in November 2016.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

30 Nov 2020 The Services Sector is Weakening, can Spending on Goods Save Q4?

You've probably read several media stories by now reporting that retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend was up, down, or unchanged from a year ago, based on credit card...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

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