Pantheon Macroeconomics

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capex

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 17:20U.S.

8 Dec 2020 Small Business Sentiment Set to Drop, but Details are More Important

Small business owners--at least, those who are members of the NFIB and respond to its monthly survey--were delighted by the election of President Trump in November 2016.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

30 Nov 2020 The Services Sector is Weakening, can Spending on Goods Save Q4?

You've probably read several media stories by now reporting that retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend was up, down, or unchanged from a year ago, based on credit card...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 20:10U.S.

6 Oct 2020 Covid Threatens Medium-Term GDP Growth but the Story is not All Bad

The steep rise in the number of people unemployed for more than six months attracted a good deal of media attention after the release of Friday's August jobs report, as well...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Oct 2020 20:20U.S.

30 Sept 2020 ADP Set to Report Rising Payrolls, but Momentum is Fading

ADP's measure of private payrolls has undershot the initial official estimate in each of the past five months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Sep 2020 20:20U.S.

26 Aug 2020 Capex is Rising, but it Won't Recover its Losses in the Foreseeable Future

After two hefty month-to-month increases, durable goods orders ex-transportation now stand only 3.9% below their January pre-Covid peak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Aug 2020 18:10U.S.

30 July 2020 No Changes Yet from the Fed, but the Door is Open for the Fall

The Fed made no changes to policy yesterday, as was almost universally expected.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jul 2020 20:10U.S.

13 May 2020 Core Inflation has Further to Fall, but Sustained Deflation is Unlikely

The record 0.4% drop in the core CPI in April would have looked even worse had it not been for favorable rounding; it was just 0.002% away from printing at -0.5%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th May 2020 20:20U.S.

4 May 2020 Permanent Change is Rare, but Some Covid Effects will Last Many Years

We're hearing a lot about permanent changes to the economy in the wake of Covid-19, but that might not be the right description. Not much is permanent, and assuming permanence...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd May 2020 20:20U.S.

29 Apr 2020 The Expansion Ended in Q1, but Q2 will be Much Worse

We expect to learn today that first quarter GDP fell at a 4.3% annualized rate, but the margin of error here is bigger than usual. Under normal circumstances we're...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.

21 Apr 2020 All Pain and No Gain as Oil Prices Plunge, the Windfall is Unspent

Under normal circumstances, the boost to consumption from the astonishing collapse in oil prices would act as a substantial--though not complete--offset to the hit to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Apr 2020 20:20U.S.

25 Mar 2020 Surveys Confirm the Services Meltdown, Industry Better, for Now

The huge drop in the March Markit services PMI, reported yesterday, and the modest dip in the manufacturing index, are the first national business survey data to capture the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

23 Mar 2020 The Growth of European Covid-19 Cases Slowed Sharply Yesterday

The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

17 Mar 2020 Q2 GDP Set to Plunge by About 10%, Stocks have Further to Fall

We were not hugely surprised to see stocks tank again yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

13 Mar 2020 QE4 Underway, Expect the Fed to Extend it Next Week

The NY Fed's announcement yesterday restarts QE. The $60B of bill purchases previously planned for the period from March 13 through April 13 will now consist of $60B purchases...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

11 Mar 2020 If Discretionary Spending Tracks the 9,11 and 2008 Paths, Look Out

It's just not possible to forecast the reaction of businesses and consumers to the coronavirus outbreak.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Mar 2020 20:20U.S.

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