U.S. Publications
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
capex
- The Fed likely will want to take out further insurance, beyond faster tapering, against upside inflation risk.
- Restoring 2% inflation requires supply chains to ease, wage gains to slow, and productivity growth to rise.
- Individually, these are all much better than 50/50 shots but the Fed needs them all.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
- ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
- The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
- Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
- October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
- Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
- These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
- The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
- Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Chair Powell is sticking to "transitory", though it will take longer for inflation to fall than previously hoped.
- The Fed still is not talking about higher rates, but tapering could be accelerated if necessary.
- Productivity likely dropped sharply in Q3, but it will rebound in Q4 and the outlook is very favorable.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Employment costs likely accelerated in the third quarter, but are they rising dangerously fast...
- ...Or will faster wage gains be offset by stronger pro- ductivity growth, as in the late nineties?
- The softness of third quarter GDP growth has nothing to say about the fourth; expect a rebound.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
- Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
- New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on manufacturing production, but by much less than in Europe.
- Sustained high oil and gas prices will spur business capex as firms seek to reduce energy intensity.
- Hurricane Ida and the downshift in new home sales signal downside risk for September housing starts.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
- Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
- Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
- Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
- New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Fiscal policy for next year could be a great deal clearer by the end of this week...
- ...The "tightening" as the deficit drops in fiscal 2022 is not what it seems; the private sector is cash-rich..
- The trade deficit likely dropped sharply in August; imports were slowed by China's port closure.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
- The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
- Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The huge range of FOMC rate forecasts for 2023 and 2024 likely reflects widely differing labor market views.
- Both extremes seem unlikely to us, but it will be some time before the range of forecasts narrows.
- New home sales recently have been a bit stronger than mortgage data imply; upside August risk?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
- …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
- The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
- Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
- The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
- ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
- Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The unwinding of the Q2 stimulus boost and the Delta hit mean that consumption looks set to fall in Q3…
- …But rising business capex and a potentially massive rebound in inventories will support growth.
- Powell's defense of "transitory" and push for full employment means no taper until data are clearer.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Mortgage demand appears to be rebounding strongly, despite only a very modest dip in rates...
- ...Has the Covid surge triggered another—albeit smaller—flight to the suburbs?
- Jobless claims likely unchanged this week, but the trend is downwards, despite Delta.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
