Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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capex

28 Nov 2022 US Monitor Don't be Deceived by Strong-Looking Homes Sales and Orders

Strong looking October new home sales and durable goods orders data are misleading

Home sales and prices have further to fall and the trend in core capex orders has slowed markedly.

The upturn in jobless claims is a better guide to what’s really happening; the economy is softening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Nov 2022 US Monitor Have PPI Margins Started to Turn Down? They have a Long Way to Go.

  • The explosion in margins during the pandemic explains most of the overshoot in core inflation.
  • Supply-chain and inventory data point to rapid margin re-compression, starting anytime now.
  • The headline Empire State index likely nudged up a bit this month, but watch for falling capex plans.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Nov 2022 US Monitor Rising Inventory-to-Sales Ratios Signal Margin Recompression

  • Rising inventory-to-sales ratios will squeeze margins and trigger an inventory correction, but not until Q1.
  • Mortgage demand fell by more than 10% in October, signalling further declines in home sales.
  • Small firms are under pressure from tighter financial conditions; capex plans are suffering.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Oct 2022 US Monitor Final Demand is Struggling, but Recession is not Inevitable

  • Q3 GDP growth flattered to deceive; domestic final demand barely rose.
  • The Q3 ECI should offer a bit of hope on the wages front, but the numbers are hard to forecast.
  • One monthly drop in core capex orders proves nothing, but weaker business surveys are ominous. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for Q3 GDP Growth, Thanks to Inventory Technicalities

  • We see upside risk for third quarter GDP growth; net trade likely drove growth to 3.1%.
  • Demand for labor is slowing, despite very low and stable initial jobless claims.
  • September durable goods orders likely boosted by aircraft, but core capex looks solid too, for now.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

  • Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
  • Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Sept 2022 US Monitor What Happens Next Year if Inflation Slows but Growth does not?

  • Our 2023 base case is that inflation will surprise to the downside, but growth will surprise to the upside…
  • …Under those conditions, the Fed will not be easing next year; continued gradual hikes are more likely.
  • Rising r-star in the face of sustained economic growth is nothing for real assets to fear

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Aug 2022 US Monitor Business Surveys Now Point--Just-- to Outright Falls in Margins

Key regional surveys now show that supply conditions have improved enough to push down margins.

The upturn in jobless claims since the spring is overstated by seasonal problems; the labor market is fine.

Capital goods orders are rising at a decent, steady pace, but inflation is offsetting the gains, for now.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Aug 2022 US Monitor Business Lending Standards are Tightening, but no Hit is Visible, Yet

Business lending standards are tightening, but credit growth is still strong, for now.

Plunging new home sales are dragging down prices, and hurting service sector activity surveys.

Upside risk for July durable goods orders today, but the housing collapse is worsening by the month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Aug 2022 US Monitor Could Foreign Trade and Inventories Drive 5% Q3 GDP Growth

Net trade and inventories look set to drive up Q3 GDP growth; we tentatively look for about 5%.

Imports are falling as demand for inventories fades; retailers over-ordered and now have excess inventory.

New home sales likely fell again in July, and prices are now under severe pressure as supply mounts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2022 US Monitor Housing-Sensitive Retail is Set for a Pounding Over the Next Year

The drop in home sales will depress spending on housing-related items, but they’re only 3% of GDP.

The rebound in the Philly Fed contradicts the plunge in the Empire State index; regional surveys are noisy.

The upward trend in jobless claims has slowed, and they remain extremely low.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 July 2022 US Monitor July Payrolls Look Set to Confirm the Slowdown Story

Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.

The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly. 

GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 July 2022 US Monitor Eight Weeks of Softer Data will Push the Fed to a Smaller September Hike

The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.

With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet. 

The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2022 US Monitor The Peak Frenzy in Rental Markets is Over

CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.

Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.

The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 July 2022 US Monitor The Housing Rollover is Gathering Pace

Home prices are falling; don’t be deceived by the high year-over-year rate...

Plunging sales and soaring inventory will drive a shift to a new, lower equilibrium level of prices.

Expect a modest bounce in the July Philly Fed, and further signs of easing supply constraints.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 July 2022 The Capital Stock Still Needs to be Rebuilt, Capex Plans will Rebound

Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...

But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.

Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2022 Job Growth Likely Slowed Again in June; Wage Gains Subdued

Homebase suggests payrolls rose about 225K, provided the seasonal adjustment behaves.

We expect further confirmation that wage growth has slowed, consistent with survey evidence.

The drop in stock prices likely will lift participation among older people, given the hit to their 401(k)s.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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