Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

caixin pmi

1 Dec 2021 Upside Risk for November ADP Employment as Delta Hit Fades

  • ADP's November employment number likely will be boosted by the fading drag from the Delta variant.
  • Chair Powell has retired "transitory", and kicked open the door to faster tapering, Omicron permitting.
  • The November ISM likely will signal a modest easing in supply pressures; auto sales up again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2021 Core Capex Orders Soar, but Look Out for a September Pause

  • Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
  • Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
  • New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Oct 2021 Layoffs are Set to Hit New Lows as the Economy Rebounds After Delta

  • The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
  • As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
  • Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Oct 2021 Retail Sales Growth Likely Dipped in September, as Delta Began to Fade

  • Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
  • …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
  • Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Oct 2021 Is China's Manufacturing Weakness Hitting the U.S.

  • China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
  • Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
  • The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Sept 2021 The Infrastructure Bill Would Compliment Rising Private Capex

  • The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
  • Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
  • The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

  • Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
  • …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
  • The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2021 The Delta Wave is Making Itself Felt in Labor Market Data, More to Come

  • Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
  • The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
  • Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2021 ADP Likely to Report a Solid Gain in August Private Payrolls

  • We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
  • China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
  • New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI Consumer Confidence, August 2021

  • In one line: No supply chain relief for manufacturers; consumers reacting to Delta.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Aug 2021 Home Price Gains are Slowing, Case- Shiller will Catch Up, Eventually

  • The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
  • Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
  • Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Aug 2021 China Decoupling is a Distraction from Cyclical Developments

  • The U.S. and China have reached peak economic integration; the next big move is the other way...
  • ...But this is a longer term trend story; for now, U.S. and Chinese manufacturing are still closely linked.
  • Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2021 The Hawks Want to Taper Very Soon, they will be Disappointed

  • FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
  • The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
  • Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 July 2021 Are Supply-Chain Pressures Starting to Ease, at the Margin

What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects… and production bottlenecks or other supply constraints", which will not last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, June 2021; Pending Home Sales, May 2021

In one line: Surprising in opposite directions, but neither looks representative of the broader economy,

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 June 2021 Upside Risk for the June ADP, but it Likely will Overstate Official Payrolls

We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 June 2021 The Tapering Conversation has Begun, but don't Mention Rates

The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no longer below the target.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2021 The Fed won't Rush to Judgment on the Post-Covid Labor Market

Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first chart, that the reopening has triggered a big spike in prices—mostly across the Covid-hit services sector—it's no longer a forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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