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- The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
- As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
- Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.
- In one line: Falling Covid cases offset by higher energy prices?
- Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
- …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
- Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.
- September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
- Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
- Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.
- Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
- ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
- Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?
- The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
- Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
- New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
The macro case for tapering now is strong, but it ig- nores the wider, and more problematic, context.
We expect the Fed to signal that tapering likely will start in November, Delta/debt ceiling permitting.
Homebuilders are responding to weaker demand after the fading of the Covid-driven flight to the suburbs.
- Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns.
- States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively low immunity, but the national wave is breaking.
- The risk of a serious further wave is fading as total immunity approaches Delta-suppressing levels.
- The current inflation spike can only become a spiral if unit labor costs accelerate..
- ...Faster productivity growth can prevent that, and the signs are that business capex is stepping up.
- Stronger productivity growth would prevent runaway inflation but lift r-star; the Fed would still have to hike.
- The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
- Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
- Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.
- The unwinding of the Q2 stimulus boost and the Delta hit mean that consumption looks set to fall in Q3…
- …But rising business capex and a potentially massive rebound in inventories will support growth.
- Powell's defense of "transitory" and push for full employment means no taper until data are clearer.
We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.
Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.
New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.
- The decline in jobless claims tells us gross layoffs are falling, but it says nothing about the pace of hiring.
- Firms hit by the Delta wave are more likely to cut back recruitment first, before laying off staff.
- The Philly Fed suggests that supply-chain shortages are no longer intensifying.
- Thailand's economy defied gravity in Q2, but trade is unlikely to provide much of a boost—if any—in Q3.
- The Delta squeeze on consumption will persist, but a collapse is unlikely and capex should stay afloat.
- Don't read too much into the jump in remittances in the Philippines in June; the trend remains weak.
Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.
The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.
Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..
The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period—that is, the week, two weeks, or month—which included Monday, July 12, counts as employed.
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to maintain—at least—their spending on goods, even as spending on reopening services surges.
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
The astonishing 0.9% leap in the April core CPI won't be replicated in the core PCE deflator.