Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate.

The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once clarity emerges in the labor market.

We see hefty downside risk to June new home sales; forecasts ignore the plunge in mortgage demand.

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground? 

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

The astonishing 0.9% leap in the April core CPI won't be replicated in the core PCE deflator.

With Covid continuing to fade away at a rapid, steady pace, New York and New Jersey both dropped restrictions on indoor dining last Wednesday, allowing 100% capacity, provided six feet distancing is maintained between parties.

The April retail sales and industrial production numbers today are wild cards, with the former especially hard to predict after the stimulus-fuelled surge in spending in March.

The FOMC made no policy changes yesterday and the statement was little different to the March note.

How many times today will Chair Powell refer to a post-Covid increase in inflation as likely to be "transitory" or "transient"?

Something remarkable is happening to auction prices for used cars, which jumped 9.1% in mid-April, according to data from Manheim, the biggest auction firm. That's not the year-over-year rate; it's the increase between March and the middle of this month.

The wave of data over the past couple weeks means we can be reasonably confident now that first quarter GDP growth was around 6%.

Today brings a huge wave of macro data, most of which will be very strong, though the gains we expect to see in March retail sales and industrial production can't be sustained. 

Today's March CPI report will be the first to be hit by hugely adverse base effects on the anniversary of the Covid-induced collapse in prices for a broad range of services.