Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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base effects

5 Oct 2021 Auto Sales Dragged Down Q3 Consumption; Smaller Hit in Q4

  • The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
  • Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
  • New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2021 Productivity Prospects Revisited: Strong Capex Kicks-in Quickly

  • Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
  • A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
  • Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 July 2021 Growth is Slowing, but that Had to Happen

Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate.

The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once clarity emerges in the labor market.

We see hefty downside risk to June new home sales; forecasts ignore the plunge in mortgage demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 June 2021 What are the Chances of a 1M Payroll Print for June

The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 May 2021 Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

The astonishing 0.9% leap in the April core CPI won't be replicated in the core PCE deflator.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 May 2021 Surging Restaurant Demand is Set to Lift May and June Retail Sales

With Covid continuing to fade away at a rapid, steady pace, New York and New Jersey both dropped restrictions on indoor dining last Wednesday, allowing 100% capacity, provided six feet distancing is maintained between parties.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 May 2021 Noise Likely to Outweight the Signal in April's Retail Sales and IP Data

The April retail sales and industrial production numbers today are wild cards, with the former especially hard to predict after the stimulus-fuelled surge in spending in March.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Apr 2021 Too Soon for Taper Talk, Again, Despite the Improving Outlook

The FOMC made no policy changes yesterday and the statement was little different to the March note.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Apr 2021 More Powell Pushback on Taper Timing Coming Today

How many times today will Chair Powell refer to a post-Covid increase in inflation as likely to be "transitory" or "transient"?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Apr 2021 Soaring Used Car and Truck Prices will Help Lift Inflation in Q2

Something remarkable is happening to auction prices for used cars, which jumped 9.1% in mid-April, according to data from Manheim, the biggest auction firm. That's not the year-over-year rate; it's the increase between March and the middle of this month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Apr 2021 First Quarter Growth Likely was About 6%, Expect Better in Q2

The wave of data over the past couple weeks means we can be reasonably confident now that first quarter GDP growth was around 6%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Apr 2021 Upside Risk for March Retail Sales as Stimulus Money Flows into Stores

Today brings a huge wave of macro data, most of which will be very strong, though the gains we expect to see in March retail sales and industrial production can't be sustained. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Apr 2021 Core CPI Set To Rebound as the Services Sector Comes Back to Life

Today's March CPI report will be the first to be hit by hugely adverse base effects on the anniversary of the Covid-induced collapse in prices for a broad range of services. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Apr 2021 Stimulus Payments are Turbo-Charging Spending; Inflation Next?

While we were out on our spring break, the broad trend in Covid cases was about flat, and the limited flow of macro data mostly was consistent with the idea that the economy is gathering pace.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence