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- The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
- Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
- Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.
- CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
- China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
- Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.
- Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
- The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
- As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.
- Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
- Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
- Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.
Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.
The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...
...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.
- October's leap in the core CPI will be followed by a run of further hefty increases...
- ...Core inflation is likely to blast through 6% early next year, posing a serious challenge to the Fed.
- Chair Powell wants to stick to "transitory", but he needs to see labor participation surging, and fast.
- Rising food service spending despite Covid Delta is a positive sign for fourth quarter consumption.
- We're assuming that the drop in cases continues, facilitating a sustained surge in spending.
- Soaring energy inflation will constrain the rate of in- crease of OER, but it will rise nonetheless.
- The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
- Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
- New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.
- Faster growth in capex will boost productivity quickly, long before the capital stock is fully rebuilt.
- A re-run of the late 90s productivity boom is a high bar, but even a modest gain would make a difference.
- Homebuilders like the Delta-driven uptick in demand, but a return to the winter peak is not in the cards.
- The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
- Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
- The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.
Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate.
The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once clarity emerges in the labor market.
We see hefty downside risk to June new home sales; forecasts ignore the plunge in mortgage demand.
A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.
Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground?