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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward... ...But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage...
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
April Payrolls Constrained by Lack of Supply, not Demand; Why
What's Driving ECI Wages, Technicalities, or Real Pressures
We expect to see a 300K increase in February payrolls reported today, a bit better than the 195K consensus but barely visible against the 10½M shortfall compared to the level...
The biggest single component of the new Covid relief bill is the re-funding of the Paycheck Protection Program, with a total of $284B
The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.
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