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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.
The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.
Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.
Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…
…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.
The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.
QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...
...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.
Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.
The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…
…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.
Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.
Don’t be deceived; the market is cratering and prices are coming under pressure
Chair Powell reiterates that rates will rise until the sequential CPI slows, but that’s not far off.
Last week’s bounce in mortgage applications is a head-fake; the trend is still in free-fall.
Jobless claims likely dipped a bit last week, but the trend is still rising, albeit slowly.
Grim and will soon be grimmer; prices starting to fall
Manufacturing softening follows several strong months; auto production recovering
A central bank promising to hike until inflation is clearly falling is effectively promising to overtighten…
…But the healthy state of the private sector’s finances mean that a recession should be averted.
The softness of May retail sales and downward revisions to April will hit Q2 GDP growth forecasts.
The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease.
More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession.
Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong.
Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.
PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.
Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.
Rents, airline fares and used vehicle prices did the damage; elsehwere, less bad
Payroll growth has slowed but is still strong, and is being accommodated by rising participation.
The moderation in wage growth looks increasingly real, and it will reduce sequential price pressures.
The next two CPI reports and June labor data are key; the Fed could yet pivot to 25bp in July.
The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.
The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.
Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.
The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.
The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.
Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.
Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.
Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.
May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.
Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.
Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.
The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?
Pending home sales likely fell much further in April than forecasters expect.
Whatever happened in April, the floor is not yet in sight; housing-related businesses are going to suffer.
The softening core durable goods orders is not yet alarming, but it needs to be watched closely.
The startling plunge in April new home sales is no fluke; demand has cratered, and price gains will slow.
Core capital goods orders are still rising strongly, despite surging energy prices; can it last?
April durable goods orders likely were flattered by the aircraft and vehicle components.
New home sales likely dropped sharply in April, but the monthly data are very noisy and unreliable.
Prices have overshot as developers have exploited low existing home inventory, but they are now at risk.
Capex plans have softened, but spending in the oil sector is accelerating, and has a long way to go.
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