Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

auto prices

6 July 2022 GDP Growth is Likely to Snap Back in Q3, Thanks to Trade and Inventories

Net foreign trade and inventories depressed GDP growth in H1, but will reverse, at least in part, in H2.

The case for a hefty rebound in headline Q2 GDP is quite strong, though final demand likely will slow.

Expect weaker JOLTS job openings and ISM services today, but supply constraints probably eased again.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 July 2022 Q2 Set for the Second Straight Dip in GDP, but it's not a Recession

Downward revisions to prior data and soft May consumption signal a real risk of a small dip in Q2 GDP…

…Not every fall in GDP signals recession, especially when payrolls are still rising rapidly.

The June ISM manufacturing index likely fell, but by much less than the Caixin PMI seems to imply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 June 2022 Does QT Mean that People Cannot Spend Some of the Savings Stock?

QT and higher rates will trigger a slowdown in loan growth and bank deposit growth...

...But the $3.5T in excess household deposits is real, and it can be spent, if people so choose.

Net foreign trade looks set to add about one percent- age point to Q2 GDP growth, and maybe more in Q3.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 June 2022 Q2 Rebound in Foreign Trade Likely to be Smaller than we Hoped

The first quarter’s massive surge in the trade deficit won’t be repeated in the second quarter…

…But the correction will be smaller than we hoped, so the 3.2pp hit to Q1 GDP will only partly reverse.

Consumer confidence likely fell sharply this month, responding to gas prices and the stock market drop.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, May

Don’t be deceived; the market is cratering and prices are coming under pressure

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 June 2022 No Promises for 75bp Hikes, and the Fed is too Blasé about Housing

Chair Powell reiterates that rates will rise until the sequential CPI slows, but that’s not far off.

Last week’s bounce in mortgage applications is a head-fake; the trend is still in free-fall.

Jobless claims likely dipped a bit last week, but the trend is still rising, albeit slowly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, May

Manufacturing softening follows several strong months; auto production recovering

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 June 2022 The Fed will Hike Until Inflation is Clearly Falling, and that's too Much

A central bank promising to hike until inflation is clearly falling is effectively promising to overtighten…

…But the healthy state of the private sector’s finances mean that a recession should be averted.

The softness of May retail sales and downward revisions to April will hit Q2 GDP growth forecasts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2022 The Fed Sledgehammer is Coming, but it is Unnecessary and Risky

The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease. 

More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession. 

Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 June 2022 Margin Re-Compression is Key to Lower Inflation, Progress in the PPI

Margin re-compression, on the back of the inventory rebuild, is the key to falling inflation over the next year.

PPI "trade services" measures margins directly; they dipped in April and likely fell again in May.

Downside risk to the NFIB headline index today, but we already know that hiring plans rebounded.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, April

Rents, airline fares and used vehicle prices did the damage; elsehwere, less bad

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 June 2022 Solid Payrolls, Rising Participation and Slower AHE = Happier Fed?

Payroll growth has slowed but is still strong, and is being accommodated by rising participation.

The moderation in wage growth looks increasingly real, and it will reduce sequential price pressures.

The next two CPI reports and June labor data are key; the Fed could yet pivot to 25bp in July.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2022 Payroll Growth Appears to have Slowed, but it Remains Strong

The Homebase data and an array of surveys suggest that job growth has slowed; we look for 250K.

The softening in average hourly earnings growth looks real, given the surge in prime-age participation.

Google mobility data point to a clear rebound in the ISM services index, but that guarantees nothing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 June 2022 Recent Data are Mixed, but No Sign of the Feared Rollover

The drop in May auto sales is a blip; the recovery in production will support rising sales through year-end.

The uptick in the ISM manufacturing index can’t be sustained, but overall the sector is in decent shape.

Don’t bother with the ADP employment report today; it is an unreliable guide to payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2022 Higher Oil Prices are Bad News for Most Manufacturers, but not All

Surging oil prices are bad news for many manufac- turers, but shale producers are responding positively.

Regional PMI and Fed surveys for May are mixed, making the ISM a tricky call; we expect a small gain.

May auto sales likely reversed their April jump, but rising vehicle output points to stronger sales ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 May 2022 Consumption Jumped in April while Core PCE Inflation Fell; but How Far

Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.

Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.

The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 May 2022 Yet More Downside Risk to Housing Data, the Floor is Months Away

 Pending home sales likely fell much further in April than forecasters expect.

Whatever happened in April, the floor is not yet in sight; housing-related businesses are going to suffer.

The softening core durable goods orders is not yet alarming, but it needs to be watched closely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 May 2022 The Extent of the Housing Rollover Finally is Laid Bare

The startling plunge in April new home sales is no fluke; demand has cratered, and price gains will slow.

Core capital goods orders are still rising strongly, despite surging energy prices; can it last?

April durable goods orders likely were flattered by the aircraft and vehicle components.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 May 2022 New Home Sales are Set for a Steep Drop, Prices are Vulnerable too

New home sales likely dropped sharply in April, but the monthly data are very noisy and unreliable.

Prices have overshot as developers have exploited low existing home inventory, but they are now at risk.

Capex plans have softened, but spending in the oil sector is accelerating, and has a long way to go.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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