Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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asset purchases

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2021 Quits are Soaring as Power Shifts to Employees, Perhaps Temporarily

We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2021 The Fed won't Rush to Judgment on the Post-Covid Labor Market

Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Nov 2020 Powell Begs for More Fiscal Action, but More QE is Coming, Either Way

The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Nov 2020 Less Fiscal Push, More Monetary Easing, Stocks Up, Yields, USD Down

As we reach our deadline at 4pm Eastern, definitive results are not yet available for Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania, any one of which would push Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 Oct 2020 The U.S. Monetary Expansion Might Boost Inflation After Covid...or Not

If you were to return home to find your home ablaze, heaven forbid, and the fire department hard at work to douse the flames, would you be more concerned about your impending...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2020 Stimulus Foundering on the Strong Objections of Some GOP Senators

As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Sept 2020 Why won't the Fed Offer Outcome-based Guidance for its QE Program?

The Fed has given itself and markets clear guidance on the minimum requirements for a rate hike-- maximum employment, and inflation at 2% and on track "moderately"...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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