Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

amazon prime Mortgage Lending and Sales

13 Jan 2022 High Inflation will Force the First Hike, Thereafter, Wage Growth is Key

  • CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
  • China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
  • Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Dec 2021 While We're Out, Omicron Cases will Rocket, but don't Worry, Much

  • Omicron cases likely will double over the holidays, but what matters is hospitalizations...
  • ...A clear increase is inevitable, but pressure on hospi- tals will be less intense that in the January 2021 wave.
  • Don't worry about November's soft core capex orders and new home sales numbers; noise not signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Dec 2021 Core PCE Inflation Rose Again in November, Peaking in February

  • Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
  • Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
  • Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Dec 2021 Omicron Cases Soaring, but Hospitalizations to be Contained?

  • U.S. Covid cases are rocketing, but we are hopeful that pressure on hospitals will be contained.
  • Omicron seems to hospitalize fewer people, and for much less time, than Delta.
  • Existing home sales and prices probably jumped again in November; inventory still very tight.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Dec 2021 The Omicron Wave will Hit Activity Hard, but not for Long; we Hope

The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.

We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.

The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Nov 2021 Pre-Holiday Data Wave Headlines will be Mixed, Trends Mostly Good

  • Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
  • Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
  • October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Nov 2021 Powell Stays in the Saddle, Tapering Unlikely to Accelerate in December

  • Chair Powell's re-appointment and the impending new board appointments will keep the Fed dovish...
  • ...But an immediate acceleration of the tapering pace in December can't be ruled out.
  • Home prices continue to rocket as rising sales leave no room for inventory to recover.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Nov 2021 Covid Cases set to Rise Further, but they won't Wreck the Economy

  • Covid cases are rising in states with low vax rates, waning vax efficacy, and low prior infections...
  • ...Colder weather likely is boosting infections in the northern half of the country; expect NE cases to soar.
  • New treatment and vaccine protection against severe disease will keep hospitalizations and deaths down.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Nov 2021 Surging Retail Sales Signal a Solid Start to Fourth Quarter Spending

  • Core retail sales are rising at a solid pace; a strong holiday season is a decent bet...
  • ...But a sustained rebound in spending on services is still the missing link in the recovery story.
  • Mortgage demand continues to rise steadily; home sales and housing construction follow.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Oct 2021 Core Capex Orders Soar, but Look Out for a September Pause

  • Hurricane Ida likely interrupted the surge in core capital goods orders last month, but only temporarily.
  • Consumers' confidence is rebounding as Covid cases drop; offsetting the impact of rising energy prices.
  • New home sales have jumped in recent months, but the rate of increase will be much slower in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Oct 2021 Cashflow--and Cash Stocks--are More Important than Confidence

  • The Delta Covid wave has depressed consumers' confidence, but not for much longer.
  • In any event, the key driver of spending next year will be cashflow and the rundown of accumulated savings
  • New home sales likely rose again in September, as the re-rebound continues, but the Ida hit is uncertain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Oct 2021 Soaring Energy Prices will Hurt Output, but the News is not all Bad

  • Higher energy prices are likely to weigh on manufacturing production, but by much less than in Europe.
  • Sustained high oil and gas prices will spur business capex as firms seek to reduce energy intensity.
  • Hurricane Ida and the downshift in new home sales signal downside risk for September housing starts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Oct 2021 The Energy Price Hit Continues, but it will not Kill Consumption

  • Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
  • ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Sept 2021 The Infrastructure Bill Would Compliment Rising Private Capex

  • The infrastructure bill, if passed, would compliment the coming surge in private capex.
  • Manufacturing surveys for September are mixed; cross-currents at work.
  • The re-rebound in the housing market is gathering speed; more to come.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Sept 2021 A Government Shutdown Thursday Likely will be Averted, Just

  • We expect a government shutdown will be averted by a continuing resolution, with no debt ceiling fix.
  • Activity in the discretionary consumer services sector is beginning to re-rebound as Delta cases plunge.
  • Home sales are nudging back up; pending sales likely rose in August, outperforming the mortgage data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2021 The Capex Revival Continues; Boeing will Flatter the August Numbers

  • Core capital goods orders are the best immediate proxy for business capex; strong growth continues.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications and home sales continues after the H1 slump...
  • Covid fear, lower rates, and easier lending standards are all helping to push up activity; more to come?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Sept 2021 Why are FOMC Members so Split on Rates in 2023 and 2024

  • The huge range of FOMC rate forecasts for 2023 and 2024 likely reflects widely differing labor market views.
  • Both extremes seem unlikely to us, but it will be some time before the range of forecasts narrows.
  • New home sales recently have been a bit stronger than mortgage data imply; upside August risk?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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