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Behind the headline spike, a June repeat of May’s 0.6% surge in the core CPI seems unlikely...
...Airline fares, used auto prices, hotel room rates all likely were better-behaved; rents are a wild card.
The NFIB survey is consistent with other evidence pointing to easing core-core inflation pressures.
The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease.
More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession.
Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong.
The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…
…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.
The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.
Rents, airline fares and used vehicle prices did the damage; elsehwere, less bad
Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.
Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.
The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?
The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…
…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.
Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.
Plunging used vehicle prices explains the undershoot in the March core CPI; they have much further to fall.
Some other components rose by less than recent trends, but too soon to know if it's more than noise.
Rebounding airline fares and profit margins signal upside risk for the March core PPI.
Both headline and core inflation peaked in March; base effect alone will trigger a clear drop in Q2.
The risks to the March core consensus are mostly to the downside, thanks to falling used vehicle prices.
The NFIB index likely dropped again in March; it’s sensitive to the stock market and gas prices.
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