13 July 2022 Core CPI Likely Moderated in June, Watch Airline Fares and Autos

Behind the headline spike, a June repeat of May’s 0.6% surge in the core CPI seems unlikely...

...Airline fares, used auto prices, hotel room rates all likely were better-behaved; rents are a wild card.

The NFIB survey is consistent with other evidence pointing to easing core-core inflation pressures.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2022 The Fed Sledgehammer is Coming, but it is Unnecessary and Risky

The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease. 

More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession. 

Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 June 2022 No Relief as Energy, Food, Cars, and Rent Hide Better Core-Core CPI

The downturn in core inflation is set to stall over the summer, while the headline rate will hit new highs…

…But core-core prices are now rising less quickly, thanks to slowing wage gains.

The Fed will hike by 50bp this week and in July, markets permitting, but we expect 25bp in September.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, April

Rents, airline fares and used vehicle prices did the damage; elsehwere, less bad

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 May 2022 Consumption Jumped in April while Core PCE Inflation Fell; but How Far

Core PCE inflation fell on a year-over-year basis in April, but the monthly print is a tricky call.

Real consumption spending rebounded after a flat March, led by autos and discretionary services.

The goods trade deficit appears to have plunged in April; is the inventory rebuild coming to an end?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 May 2022 Behind the Noise, Core-Core Price Increases are Moderating

The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…

…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.

Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Apr 2022 One Better Month is not a Trend, but the March CPI Offers Real Hope

Plunging used vehicle prices explains the undershoot in the March core CPI; they have much further to fall.

Some other components rose by less than recent trends, but too soon to know if it's more than noise.

Rebounding airline fares and profit margins signal upside risk for the March core PPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Apr 2022 Inflation Peak Arrives; the Downshift Could be Disorientingly Fast

Both headline and core inflation peaked in March; base effect alone will trigger a clear drop in Q2.

The risks to the March core consensus are mostly to the downside, thanks to falling used vehicle prices.

The NFIB index likely dropped again in March; it’s sensitive to the stock market and gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Mar 2022 Everything Except ADP Points to a Soft March Payroll Report

• We're sticking to our zero payroll forecast; Homebase and other data contradict ADP.
• A rebound in February spending on services seems to have been offset by a drop in spending on goods. 
• Core PCE inflation likely rose, but the February reading could be the peak; Q2 will see a clear downshift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Mar 2022 Headline Inflation set for a New High, but the Core Should be Less Terrible

• Headline inflation likely hit a 40-year high in February, but the monthly core increases likely have peaked.
• Lower used vehicle prices and airline fares probably limited the core increase in February.
• JOLTS job openings remain close to their record high, despite rising labor participation rates.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Feb 2022. U.S. Macro Implications of the Ukraine War Remain Modest

• Key U.S. market metrics are now marginally better than immediately before Russia invaded Ukraine... 
• ...Oil prices, particular, priced-in the invasion, so retail gas prices will now stabilize. 
• First quarter GDP growth looks set to be lower than we hoped, thanks to continued auto supply problems. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Feb 2022 Downside Risks for Spending and the Core PCE Deflator in January

• Consumption jumped in January, but the increase likely was constrained by weakness in services.
• Downside risk for the core PCE deflator; look out for a hefty drop in airline fares.
• Severe weather and Omicron probably depressed January durable goods orders and new home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Feb 2022 Base Effects will Lift January Inflation, Monthly Run-Rate has Peaked

• An Omicron hit to airline fares and lodging costs sug- gests modest downside risk to January's core CPI.
• Reweighting will not materially change the path of core inflation; fundamentals are what matter.
• Vehicle prices are the most likely driver of downside inflation surprises in the spring and summer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Jan 2022 Soaring Oil Prices will Lift Headline Inflation, and Slow the Core Decline

• December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
• Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
• The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Jan 2022 Upside Risks in the December Core CPI, Headline Rate to Peak

• Upside risk to the December core CPI, mostly from vehicle prices, airline fares, and hotel room rates.
• Headline inflation likely rose above 7%, but this should be the peak.
• Small firms sentiment is yet to reflect the Omicron hit, or the weakening in the stock market.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.