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Claims are noisy at the turn of the year; forward-looking indicators point to a renewed rise ahead.
Post-Thanksgiving volatility probably drove the jump in initial claims.
Low initial claims still consistent with rising unemployment, given very muted hiring.
Pick-up in continuing claims consistent with a further slowing in hiring.
The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.
Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.
Hit to payrolls from Milton likely was limited.
Boost from Milton underwhelms, while claims elsewhere drop back.
Bouncing back after a poor H1, but Q3’s momentum will not be sustained.
Helene and strikes obscure the underlying trend.
Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.
Underlying equipment investment is still weak, but computers and aircraft are red hot.
A significant recovery seems unlikely in the near term.
Strong headline numbers, but a grim near-term outlook.
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