Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Boosted marginally by Boeing; expect a further uplift from Hurricane Helene ahead.
Net trade probably only a small drag on headline growth in Q3.
Underlying equipment investment is still weak, but computers and aircraft are red hot.
A significant recovery seems unlikely in the near term.
Strong headline numbers, but a grim near-term outlook.
Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead
PPI and CPI data suggest the August core PCE rose by about 0.14%, sustaining the slowdown.
Punishingly high borrowing costs continuing to weigh on hiring and capex plans.
Manufacturing on course for a fresh slump in Q3.
The rising trend has flattened off; expect a run of lower numbers this fall.
Clearer signs that services sector employment is rolling over.
Underlying claims have plateaued, and will probably slip back in the near term.
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