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Stuck at low levels for the foreseeable future.
Prices are falling rapidly as homebuilders scramble to reduce inventory overhang.
Few signs yet of the long-awaited increase in inventory.
On course for an outright decline in Q2, despite April bounce.
The rebound in home sales is hitting the buffers.
Homebuilders continue to slash prices to shift excess inventory.
Sales rose in Q1, but expect a reversal in Q2; a sustained recovery remains a long way off
So much for the red-hot start to the year...
Sales will remain stuck at low levels until affordability improves dramatically.
Homebuilders continue to slash prices to shift excess supply.
A dramatic improvement in affordability is still needed before sales can recover.
Reversal of January spike in control sales delayed, not cancelled.
Weather and lower rates boosted sales; expect a drop in February
New home sales boosted by a lack of existing home supply.
Sales have bottomed, but the downturn in prices will be the big story for housing in 2023.
January strength in in retail sales unlikely to last, autos excepted.
Downturn in home sales coming to an end, but sustained recovery is a long way off.
The slump in new home prices has much further to run
The fall in prices will gather pace in the months ahead
U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence