Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

U.S. Philly Fed/Empire State/Unemployment Claims

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims/Philadelphia Fed, March

Weather hit to claims reverses; Philly Fed is much weakter than it looks

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI/Empire State Survey

PPI disinflation is back on track; no manufacturing bounce from China, yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, week ending 4 March.

Temporarily boosted by bad weather, but a sustained increase is in sight.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 18 Feb 23/Q4 GDP revisions

Claims still in a low and narrow range; core PCE deflator for Q4 revised up

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts/Philly Fed

Housing starts close to a floor; conflicting signals from the regional Fed surveys

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, February

China rebound plus warm January = happier manufacturers, for now

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Q4 GDP/Weekly Jobless Claims

Most of the GDP growth is in trade and inventories; final demand is weak

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, January/Weeklu Jobless Claims

Philly Fed stabilizing, maybe; claims don't tell the whole labor market story

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

12 Jan 2023 US Monitor December's Core CPI Data Should Reinforce the Improving Trend

  • A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
  • Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
  • Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment/Jobless Claims

ADP and Homebase signal upside payroll risk tomorrow

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

19 Dec 2022 US Monitor The Fed Can Still Thread the Needle, but the Risk of Failure is High

  • Our base case remains that inflation will be van- quished without a recession...
  • ...But the Fed’s determination to take zero inflation risk makes the balancing act much more difficult.
  • Core inflation is now falling, but the Fed wants wage growth to moderate; leading indicators are favorable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philly Fed/Empire State/Jobless Claims

Mixed industrial surveys; don't believe the drop in claims

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, December 3

The trend is rising, but expect noise over the next few weeks.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

1 Dec 2022 US Monitor Manufacturing is Weak, but the ISM Remains Above Recession Levels

Consumption started the fourth quarter quite strongly; 3%-plus seems a decent bet.

Core PCE price pressures eased sequentially in October; further down shifts ahead?

Last week’s jump in the initial jobless claims likely was not a fluke; the trend probably is rising.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence