PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims/Philadelphia Fed, March

Weather hit to claims reverses; Philly Fed is much weakter than it looks

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI/Empire State Survey

PPI disinflation is back on track; no manufacturing bounce from China, yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, week ending 4 March.

Temporarily boosted by bad weather, but a sustained increase is in sight.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims

Bottoming, and likely to rise sharply in the spring

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 18 Feb 23/Q4 GDP revisions

Claims still in a low and narrow range; core PCE deflator for Q4 revised up

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts/Philly Fed

Housing starts close to a floor; conflicting signals from the regional Fed surveys

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, February

China rebound plus warm January = happier manufacturers, for now

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, 4 February

Favorable weather effects starting to fade?

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Q4 GDP/Weekly Jobless Claims

Most of the GDP growth is in trade and inventories; final demand is weak

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, January/Weeklu Jobless Claims

Philly Fed stabilizing, maybe; claims don't tell the whole labor market story

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey, January

Plunge in headline index startling but not definitive.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S.CPI, December/Weekly Jobless Claims

Improving core trend is now in place.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

12 Jan 2023 US Monitor December's Core CPI Data Should Reinforce the Improving Trend

• A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
• Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
• Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment/Jobless Claims

ADP and Homebase signal upside payroll risk tomorrow

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Held down by seasonals; expect a big rebound next week

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Dec 2022 US Monitor The Fed Can Still Thread the Needle, but the Risk of Failure is High

• Our base case remains that inflation will be van- quished without a recession...
• ...But the Fed’s determination to take zero inflation risk makes the balancing act much more difficult.
• Core inflation is now falling, but the Fed wants wage growth to moderate; leading indicators are favorable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philly Fed/Empire State/Jobless Claims

Mixed industrial surveys; don't believe the drop in claims

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, December 3

The trend is rising, but expect noise over the next few weeks.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, October/Weekly Jobless Claims

Q4 consumption set for 3%-plus, but trouble brewing ahead

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2022 US Monitor Manufacturing is Weak, but the ISM Remains Above Recession Levels

Consumption started the fourth quarter quite strongly; 3%-plus seems a decent bet.

Core PCE price pressures eased sequentially in October; further down shifts ahead?

Last week’s jump in the initial jobless claims likely was not a fluke; the trend probably is rising.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.