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Weather hit to claims reverses; Philly Fed is much weakter than it looks
PPI disinflation is back on track; no manufacturing bounce from China, yet.
Temporarily boosted by bad weather, but a sustained increase is in sight.
Bottoming, and likely to rise sharply in the spring
Claims still in a low and narrow range; core PCE deflator for Q4 revised up
Housing starts close to a floor; conflicting signals from the regional Fed surveys
China rebound plus warm January = happier manufacturers, for now
Favorable weather effects starting to fade?
Most of the GDP growth is in trade and inventories; final demand is weak
Philly Fed stabilizing, maybe; claims don't tell the whole labor market story
Plunge in headline index startling but not definitive.
Improving core trend is now in place.
ADP and Homebase signal upside payroll risk tomorrow
Held down by seasonals; expect a big rebound next week
Mixed industrial surveys; don't believe the drop in claims
The trend is rising, but expect noise over the next few weeks.
Q4 consumption set for 3%-plus, but trouble brewing ahead
Consumption started the fourth quarter quite strongly; 3%-plus seems a decent bet.
Core PCE price pressures eased sequentially in October; further down shifts ahead?
Last week’s jump in the initial jobless claims likely was not a fluke; the trend probably is rising.
U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence