PM Datanote: Personal Income and Spending, April

Still not progress on PCE core services prices, ex-rents.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Personal Income and Spending March; ECI, Q1

The Fed will like core PCE services ex-housing, but not the ECI.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, February

A welcome slowing in core PCE services price gains, but one month is not enough

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, January

The risk of a March 50bp hike has gone up, but it would be a mistake

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, December

January spending will rebound, but Q1 will be weak overall; core inflation is falling.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, November

Solid Q3 spending unlikely to persist, but disinflation will

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, October/Weekly Jobless Claims

Q4 consumption set for 3%-plus, but trouble brewing ahead

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Nov 2022 US Monitor Capex Outperformed in Q3, but the Outlook is Deteriorating Rapidly

• Business capital spending performed surprisingly well in Q3, but the outlook is deteriorating rapidly.
• Brace for a potential upside shock in today’s job claims numbers; the trend is turning.
• New home sales cannot fall forever but the near-term downside risk is clear.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Nov 2022 US Monitor Debt Ceiling, Government Spending Path are Contingent on Elections

• Control of the Senate might not be decided until December; it’s unlikely to be known tonight.
• The drop in household employment in October was noise, not a sign of plunging payrolls ahead.
• Small business sentiment under renewed pressure from falling stock prices and higher rates.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.