PM Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, March

The recovery in the NAHB index will soon hit the buffers.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI/Empire State Survey

PPI disinflation is back on track; no manufacturing bounce from China, yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, February

Fall in stock prices to snuff out modest rebound in NFIB.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, February

The jump in the employment index likely is noise.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, February

Still struggling for now, but boost from China reopening is coming.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NAHB Survey, February

Surprise! Homebuilders like warm winters too

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Empire State Survey, February

China rebound plus warm January = happier manufacturers, for now

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, January

Less-grim but still weak; inflation pressures gradually easing

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, January/Weeklu Jobless Claims

Philly Fed stabilizing, maybe; claims don't tell the whole labor market story

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, January

Probably past the worst, but a sustained improvement will have to wait

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey, January

Plunge in headline index startling but not definitive.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, December

Cheaper gas not enough to cheer small businesses

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilders Survey, December

Sales nearing the incompressible minimum level

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, November

Plunging inventory intentions signal trouble ahead

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, November

11th straight decline, but a floor is not far off

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

19 Oct 2022 US Monitor Homebase Data Signal a Sharp Slowdown in October Payrolls

• The initial Homebase data for the October survey week point to much weaker payroll growth.
• Hurricane Ian likely accounts for some of the slowing, but most of it looks to be real.
• Housing construction as falling; it has a long way to go, given the ongoing plunge in home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, October

Disastrous, and no bottom in sight

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Oct 2022 US Monitor Manufacturing is Struggling, but the News is not All Terrible

• Manufacturing is struggling, but autos will flatter the production numbers as supply chains ease further.
• Capex plans in the Empire State survey have risen for three straight months, but other surveys are weaker.
• No end in sight for homebuilders’ misery; the latest surge in mortgage rates is yet to work through.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, September

The headline increase won’t last, but labor market pressure is easing

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, September

Holding up well; the strength in employment is startling

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.