Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

U.S. ISM Services

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, February

Still struggling for now, but boost from China reopening is coming.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services, January

Another upside surprise, but softening in the months ahead is likely

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, January

Rebound in China will drag manufacturing out of its hole soon.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services, November

Service sector still holding up, but clouds are gathering

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, November

Survey data point to weaker growth but also lower inflation.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

1 Nov 2022 US Monitor JOLTS Already Signals Slower Job Gains; Brace for a Further Decline

  • The plunge in job openings was the biggest surprise in the August data; what happened in September?
  • The ISM manufacturing index likely fell again in October, but it remains well above recession levels.
  • Auto sales appear to have rebounded very strongly in October as supply continued to improve.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Oct 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Fast

  • Core PPI inflation is falling rapidly, with both the goods and services components rolling over…
  • The plunge in PPI services inflation is being driven by margins, which have a long, long, way to fall.
  • Supply constraints mostly have gone, and many retailers now have far too much inventory.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Oct 2022 US Monitor Plunging Job Openings are a Potential Fed Game-Changer

  • The sudden and dramatic plunge in the August job openings will move the Fed, if it persists...
  • ...Similar reports for the next two months make 125bp of tightening by year-end very unlikely.
  • The ISM services index likely dipped in September; the housing collapse and falling stock prices hurt.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, September

Disappointing, but clear signals of downward pressure on inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Sept 2022 US Monitor Are Business Capex Plans Reviving as Oil Prices Drop

  • Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
  • Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
  • New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2022 US Monitor August's Core CPI Mean 75bp is Done, but the Big Picture is Improving

  • The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
  • ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
  • Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2022 US Monitor Vice Chair Brainard Says Lower Margins will Reduce Inflation; Agreed

  • The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
  • Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
  • Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2022 US Monitor Consumers' Spending is Responding to the Plunge in Gasoline Prices

  • Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
  • The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
  • The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence