The jump in the employment index likely is noise.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Still struggling for now, but boost from China reopening is coming.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Another upside surprise, but softening in the months ahead is likely
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Rebound in China will drag manufacturing out of its hole soon.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Few reasons to be bullish about manufacturing
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Service sector still holding up, but clouds are gathering
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Survey data point to weaker growth but also lower inflation.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Manufacturing is hanging in; labor demand is softening, gradually.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The plunge in job openings was the biggest surprise in the August data; what happened in September?
- The ISM manufacturing index likely fell again in October, but it remains well above recession levels.
- Auto sales appear to have rebounded very strongly in October as supply continued to improve.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core PPI inflation is falling rapidly, with both the goods and services components rolling over…
- The plunge in PPI services inflation is being driven by margins, which have a long, long, way to fall.
- Supply constraints mostly have gone, and many retailers now have far too much inventory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Holding up well; the strength in employment is startling
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The sudden and dramatic plunge in the August job openings will move the Fed, if it persists...
- ...Similar reports for the next two months make 125bp of tightening by year-end very unlikely.
- The ISM services index likely dipped in September; the housing collapse and falling stock prices hurt.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Disappointing, but clear signals of downward pressure on inflation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Businesses’ capex plans appear to be starting to rebound, but how much damage has been done?
- Cheaper gas likely is cheering consumers, and reducing their inflation expectations.
- New home sales probably fell again in August, and prices probably are falling, given very high inventory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
- Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
- A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The disappointing core CPI data for August mean the Fed will hike by 75bp, with 50bp likely in November...
- ..But the underlying forces which will drive down inflation over the next year are unchanged.
- Better news is coming, soon, depending on the pass- through from vehicle auction prices to the CPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed finally has started to talk about the impact of margins on inflation, after months of baffling silence.
- Vice-Chair Brainard says wider margins drove up inflation; a reversal could drive it back down.
- Jobless claims hit a three-month low; the feared summer surge in layoffs did not happen.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Consumers’ discretionary spending is reviving in the wake of the plunge in gas prices.
- The ISM and PMI services indexes are headed in opposite directions; one of them is wrong.
- The July trade data will confirm that the deficit is falling fast; trade will be a big plus for Q3 GDP growth.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
